Ontwikkeling van het groepsrisico rond Schiphol, 1990-2010

The possibility of an aircraft accident with a large number of casualties on the ground in the Schiphol area is expected to be about twice as much in 2005 as it was in 1990. The risk can be expected not to grow much until 2010. This is because there is no substantial growth to be expected in air traffic, and building developments in risky locations can be controlled with recently developed policy instruments. A study on the risk for a large number of casualties, the socalled societal risk, has been carried out for the years 1990, 2005 and 2010. The increase in societal risk is due to the increase in air traffic risks in almost the same measure as to the increase in buildings, mainly those belonging to companies. Furthermore, societal risk is highly concentrated (i.e. 90% of the risk occurs in 3 % of the built area). In earlier studies the safety situation was always considered for the whole area (56 times 56 km) around Schiphol. In this usual approach the possibilities of there being casualties are summed for the whole area. This gives a good insight into the number of casualties; however, there is no information about the risk for specific locations. Therefore, in this study a method has been developed to determine the 'local societal risk'. The increase in societal risk is not really a big surprise: in November 2003 the Deputy Minister of the Department of Public Health, Spatial Planning and the Environment stated in the Dutch Parliament that given this large growth of air traffic, the standstill policy had never been realistic. He also promised to have this matter investigated. This study fulfils this promise. In the study, great care is given to population data and especially the population in industry, offices, schools, hotels and hospitals. In combination with the 'local societal risk' approach, this report will present a better and more reliable picture of the risk situation in relation to spatial planning than was done in earlier studie