De invloed van een verschuiving in beginnersmobiliteit op de trendbreuk in het aantal verkeersdoden tussen 2003 en 2004 : analyse op basis van veranderingen in het autoparkbezit onder jongeren.

The influence of a shift in young novice driver mobility on the broken trend in the number of road fatalities between 2003 and 2004. In recent decennia, the number of road fatalities has seen a downward trend. In 2004, the number of road fatalities showed a relatively strong decrease of more than 200 compared to 2003. In addition to factors found in previous studies, a (temporary) decrease in the mobility of young novice drivers may be a new factor which has possibly contributed to the decrease of the number of road fatalities in 2004. The increase in car ownership among young drivers was relatively high in 2002 and 2003 and relatively low in 2004 and 2005. This shift in car ownership in relation with age was used to calculate the expected proportional changes in passenger car mobility and then in crash involvement of young novice drivers. Their crash involvement is three to five times higher than that of experienced drivers; therefore the expected changes in mobility will have considerable effects on the number of road fatalities in crashes involving young novice drivers. The changes in vehicle ownership may have resulted in an estimated decrease of a maximum of fifty fatalities in 2004 compared to 2003. The report recommends further improvement of the method that uses the developments in vehicle ownership as an indicator for the mobility of young novice drivers in further detail. This may result in improved understanding of mobility shifts between novice and more experienced drivers and also in a better insight in the developments in the numbers of casualties in consecutive years. Finally, it is also recommended to include the date of issue of the driving licence on the licence itself. In case of a crash, the police could then also register the duration of licence possession of the drivers involved as an indication of driving experience