Drinking patterns of adolescents who develop alcohol use disorders: results from the Victorian adolescent health cohort study

Objective: We identify drinking styles that place teensat greatest risk of later alcohol use disorders (AUD).Design: Population-based cohort study.Setting: Victoria, Australia.Participants: A representative sample of 1943adolescents living in Victoria in 1992.Outcome measures: Teen drinking was assessed at6 monthly intervals (5 waves) between mean ages 14.9and 17.4 years and summarised across waves as none,one, or two or more waves of: (1) frequent drinking(3+ days in the past week), (2) loss of control overdrinking (difficulty stopping, amnesia), (3) bingedrinking (5+ standard drinks in a day) and (4) heavybinge drinking (20+ and 11+ standard drinks in a dayfor males and females, respectively). Young AdultAlcohol Use Disorder (AUD) was assessed at 3 yearlyintervals (3 waves) across the 20s (mean ages 20.7through 29.1 years).Results: We show that patterns of teen drinkingcharacterised by loss of control increase risk for AUDacross young adulthood: loss of control over drinking(one wave OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8; two or morewaves OR 1.9, CI 1.4 to 2.7); binge drinking (one waveOR 1.7, CI 1.3 to 2.3; two or more waves OR 2.0, CI1.5 to 2.6), and heavy binge drinking (one wave OR2.0, CI 1.4 to 2.8; two or more waves OR 2.3, CI 1.6 to3.4). This is not so for frequent drinking, which wasunrelated to later AUD. Although drinking was morecommon in males, there was no evidence of sexdifferences in risk relationships.Conclusions: Our results extend previous work byshowing that patterns of drinking that represent loss ofcontrol over alcohol consumption (however expressed)are important targets for intervention. In addition tocurrent policies that may reduce overall consumption,emphasising prevention of more extreme teenagebouts of alcohol consumption appears warranted