The Relationship among International Oil Price, and Consumer Price Index- Case from Taiwan and China

[[abstract]]原油是生產投入賴以維生的重要資源，國際原油價格產生波動，將會牽動國內生產毛額(GDP)與消費者物價(CPI)漲跌，中國自改革開放後經濟發展快速，在國際地位及影響力逐漸提升，在近年來經濟發展逐漸趨緩，然而台灣與中國積極建立對外經貿合作關係，在2010年簽屬「經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)」，成為經濟互動往來的新里程碑。本研究針對2001年第一季至2015年第四季，透過單根檢定、最適落後期之選取、Granger因果關係檢定探討北海布蘭特原油價格對於台灣及中國國內生產毛額和消費者物價指數之關聯性，然而，台灣與中國高度依賴石油進口能源的經濟體，探討油價對於台灣與中國總體經濟活動的影響。 本研究採取ADF和PP檢定法，對所有變數做一階差分序列後，變數數值皆為定態時間序列；在因果關係檢定中發現北海布蘭特原油價格對台灣與中國國內生產毛額及消費者物價指數影響，表示原油價格在總體經濟變數扮演著重要角色，當原油價格皆會影響台灣與中國國內生產毛額及消費者物價指數之變動，然而天然能源的開採及發展是我們難以充分估計未來油價的走勢，勢必影響台灣與中國的經濟發展。 Oil is bread and butter of production inputs important resource for people, the international crude oil price fluctuations will affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the consumer price Index (CPI) up or down, since the reform and opening up China's rapid economic development international status and influence gradually improved. The economic growth is slowing in recent years, but Taiwan and China to establish a positive relationship between foreign trade and economic cooperation, signed in 2010, belong to "Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)," a new milestone in the economic interaction exchanges. In this study. For the first quarter of 2001 to 2015 in the fourth quarter, through the Unit root test to select the most backward of it, Granger causality test to explore the relationship among international oil price, and Consumer Price Index for Taiwan and China. However, Taiwan and Chinese economies are highly dependent on oil imports energy to explore for oil in Taiwan and China's influence overall economic activity. This study take ADF and PP test, all the variables to make a first difference, the steady state values of the variables are all time-series, Granger causality test oil prices on the Taiwan and Chinese domestic production and consumption in the causation assays price index impact, indicating the price of crude oil in the overall economic variables play an important role, when crude oil prices will influence the changes in gross domestic product in Taiwan and China and the consumer price index, however, the exploitation and development of natural energy is difficult for us to fully estimate the future trend of oil prices is bound to affect Taiwan and China's economic development