Global risk maps for mycotoxins in wheat and maize

Abstract This chapter maps the worldwide risk for mycotoxin contamination with focus on deoxynivalenol in wheat and on fuminisin and aflatoxins in maize. A modelling approach was taken with meteorological data as input. FAO databases were used both to define crop distribution and as a meteorological data source. Simple existing models developed to predict mycotoxin contamination at harvest were adapted and used for the global forecasting. Risk maps were drawn by overlapping the layer of countries with significant wheat/maize growing areas, a North and South latitude filter (60\ub0 and 55\ub0 respectively for wheat and maize), and risk as assessed by predictive criteria. The idea of mapping mycotoxin risk in wheat and maize worldwide is ambitious because of the large amount of data required. Predictive maps are drawn as mean maps and do not consider annual and local variations, but instead stress main problems in particular areas. Annual local surveys, in specific years, may suggests a different picture of the mycotoxin risk. These discrepancies are expected because of the simple modelling approach adopted and because only meteorological data have been taken into account. Nevertheless, this simple model could provide the basis for global comparisons. The long term goal is to study the occurrence of mycotoxins and related fungi, to monitor crop phenology and cropping system, and to store meteorological data in a broadly accessible manner