Stylized facts of democratization and economic growth in the long-term

This paper systematically examines the processes of democratization and Real GDP per capita growth and highlights the existence of common patterns, classified into four groups according to an originally developed taxonomy: synergic success, erratic democratization, synergic failure and authoritarian growth. The analysis, accomplished both in a static and in a dynamic framework, shows that synergic success is the strikingly prevailing outcome in the long-run. The results are robust to different data sources and time-spans (1972-2010; 1980-2010; 1960-2010). The present analysis embodies an important advantage, i.e. the possibility of bypassing the challenge of defining democracy according to arbitrary thresholds in quantitative indices: the focus is in fact on the process of political development (along an ideal continuum from autocracy to democracy) rather than on its final output. Finally, the paper offers a tentative exploration of the potential role of conflicts and region-specific characteristics in affecting the outcome of the democracy/growth relationship