Mobility and desertification: new evidence from rural household survey in the Minqin Oasis, northwest China

Dramatic desertifi cation in the Minqin oasis of the Shiyang River catchment, northwest China has reduced the availability and stability of farmland and irrigation water and increased vulnerability among farmer households. Th is study addresses how, and to what extent, climate and political factors interact with other potential drivers to shape people’s migration choices. It investigates rural residents’ migration experience in the last 5 years (2008–12) and their migration intentions in the next 2 years (201–14), based on primary data collected from 440 households in 5 marginal townships located at the terminus of the Shiyang River. Probit regression methods are used for data analysis. Th e study found that reductions in cropping (including livestock) production, arable land, and water supply played an important role in stimulating past migration decisions of rural residents, while such climate change impacts are statistically insignifi cant in villagers’ intended future migration. Th is study provides new evidence that political factors are playing an increasingly signifi cant part in infl uencing intentions of future migration. Individual decisions on migration or intentions to migrate are also signifi cantly infl uenced by individual and household characteristics, social networks, housing and health status.Yan Tan, Graeme Hug