Practice in School Enrollment Projections

Slides from a workshop presented at the 13th Annual New Mexico Data Users Conference, sponsored by the UNM Bureau of Business and Economic ResearchA presentation on the challenges faced by UNM-GPS demographic researchers in projecting school enrollments. Briefly discusses the problems with forecasting any small area's population, as well as conditions particular to New Mexico, such as migration in the southern border counties. The project's methodology including data preparation, grade progression ratios, and regression modeling are described, using two cases to illustrate: Clovis Municipal Schools and Central Consolidated Schools in San Juan County. Includes tables and charts.University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic Researc