BBER Population Estimates for New Mexico, 2001-2006: Origins of a Growing Gap with Census Bureau Estimates

This article compares two sets of annual population estimates for the state of New Mexico and its counties, from 2001 through 2006: the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program’s intercensal estimates, and alternative estimates from the UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research Population Estimates Program. The author describes how the Census Bureau undercounted the NM population in the 2000 decennial census, with a resulting loss of federal funding for state social programs. For this reason the state has funded the Census Dissemination and Demographic Analysis Project; the BBER-Population Estimates Program has been tasked with providing population data with better accuracy. He then explores the different methodologies used for the two data series and discusses how the Census Bureau’s use of administrative records, such as birth and death rates (known as the “cohort-component” model), may lead to an underestimation of the NM population. The author argues that BBER-PEP’s housing unit-based procedure is more accurate. Illustrated with tables and graphs.State of New Mexico Census Dissemination and Demographic Analysis Projec