Una comparacion de programas de modelacion de cambios de cobertura/uso del suelo

International audienceLand use/cover changes (LUCC) are significant to a range of issues central to the study of global environmental change and have thus have received growing attention by decision makers and scientists. Over the last decades, a range of models of LUCC have been developed to meet land management needs, and to better understand, assess and project the future role of LUCC in the functioning of the earth system. This study intends to compare the possibilities and the limits of four modelling approaches: CLUE, DINAMICA EGO, CA_MARKOV and Land Change Modeler (both available in IDRISI). First, a review of methods and tools available for each model was done taking into account how the model carry out the different procedures involved in the modelling process (Estimation of the quantity of changes, finding of the relationship between the explanatory variables and the changes in order to assess the degree of change potential, change allocation, simulation of spatial patterns of changes, model evaluation). The four models were applied to simple case studies and model outputs were compared. Palavras-chave: Land use / land cover change, modelling, GIS