The Affecting Factors on Claims of Automobile Liability Insurance in Taiwan: Logistic Regression Model

[[abstract]]隨著幾十年來的經濟發展，台灣自用小客車的比率逐年穩定的上升，但伴隨而來的車禍事故風險也隨之增加。面臨車禍事故中第三方的責任賠償，汽車第三人責任保險在汽車保險中扮演著重要的角色。本研究以從人因素及從車因素兩大構面出發來探討保險公司對於求償者理賠機率的影響，並藉由羅吉斯迴歸探討保險人性別、年齡、賠償紀錄、車齡及排氣量是否對於理賠機率具有顯著影響以及勝算比的探討。本研究實證結果顯示: (1) 從人因素-在體傷責任理賠中，求償者的賠款紀錄對於理賠機率有顯著影響: 當賠款紀錄減費係數越高，則理賠機率就越低。在財損責任理賠分析中發現，性別對於理賠機率具有顯著效果:男性的理賠機率高於女性，進而也發現性別與年齡的交互項具有統計顯著影響，則年輕男性較年長男性易可能發生理賠。 (2) 從車車因素-若從車因素為影響理賠機率的唯一因素時，則實證結果從車因素對汽車第三人責任險呈現不顯著，與當前學理與實務相一致。[[abstract]]The number of private cars is steadily increasing from year to year in Taiwan; however this also increases the risk of vehicle accidents Nowadays third party au-tomobile liability insurance play a major function in automobile insurance market when we face with compensation of third person in vehicle accidents Therefore the pur-pose of this research is to examine human factors and vehicle factors on the probabil-ity of receiving the claim and to determine which specific factors are truly affecting the probability and odds ratio The empirical findings are as follow: (1) based on the human factors the variable of claim is statistically significant in the probabilities of receiving claim which indi-cates that a higher claim claimant was tending to lower probability of claim in the bodily injury payouts The gender is statistically significant in the probability of re-ceiving in the property damage payouts Male claimants were tending to higher proba-bility of claim This research also indicates that age do interact with gender; younger male claimants had a higher probability of receiving the claim than older male claim-ants in the property damage payouts (2) based on vehicle factors we can conclude that the hypothesis cannot be established by the empirical findings if we only assume that the vehicle factor is an only affecting factor to the probability of receiving the payouts This result is consistent with the issue of third-party automobile liability in-suranc