Relationships between Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: New Buildings and Pre-sale Buildings

[[abstract]]本文以2002年~2015年季資料，分析貨幣供給額、消費者物價指數、臺灣加權股價指數對國泰房價指數間之關聯性。實證發現，因果關係結果顯示股價為房價、物價及貨幣供給額的領先指標。股市上漲能帶動房價上漲，進而帶動消費者物價指數上升及貨幣供給額增加。由預測誤差變異數分解發現，自身解釋變異程度較高。因此，政府對於預售房屋及新成屋價格之管控尤為重要，須審慎採更合宜的房市措施，以達其效果之顯現。[[abstract]]This paper adopts the quarter data from the year of 2002 to 2015 to analyze the correlations between the variables of the money supply the consumer price index the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the housing price index The empirical findings show that the stock prices is the leading indicator of the house price prices of commodities and the money supply The increase of the stock market can lead to the rising of the house price which enhances the rising level of consumer price index and the money supply Through the forecasting error variance decomposition this study finds that the level of variance explained is quite high It indicates that the governmental control over the prices of the pre-sales housing and new readily available house is significant; and the authority should carefully adopt certain appropriate housing market measures for achieving a better effect in controlling the housing prices of the marke