Dynamic Transmission of Macroeconomic Variables and Exports: Evidence in Taiwan

[[abstract]]本文利用向量自我迴歸模型探討並比較利率、匯率、GDP與貿易依存度等總體經濟變數對出口之連動性。由台灣2000～2015年之季資料顯示可由經濟訊息面找到影響出口的答案。向量自我迴歸模型實證發現，GDP成長有機會帶動出口及貿易依存度的增長；由預測誤差變異數分解顯示，匯率的波動確實會影響出口貿易。因此，政府的貨幣政策要能夠有效率的引導出口價格，就必須依據景氣對策信號判斷採用適當及合宜的措施。[[abstract]]This paper studies and compares the impact of macroeconomic variables on export through vector autoregression model (VAR) Those variables include interest rate exchange rate gross domestic product and the degree of dependence on foreign trade Using quarterly data from Taiwan during 2000 to 2015 period the evidence shows that factors that influence export can be identified in economic information dimension Adopting VAR we find that growing GDP may trigger the increase of export and the degree of dependence on foreign trade And forecast error variance decomposition indicates that fluctuating exchange rate will affect export trade Therefore appropriate measures must be taken according to the monitoring indicators so that monetary policy made by the government shall be able to efficiently shape the exporting proces