Climate change risks, information, and adaptation: Perspectives of Midwestern U.S. farmers and advisors

Agricultural sustainability is critical for the long-term health of our environment and society. Global climate change presents unique challenges to the resilience of U.S. agriculture, that farmers and advisors must respond to with effective adaptation strategies. This dissertation addresses issues of U.S. agriculture\u27s response to climate change through three connected studies. The first is a systematic review of 30 years of applied research on farmers\u27 and advisors\u27 views and use of weather and climate forecasts and decision support tools (DSTs) in more developed countries. This review revealed that while use of weather and climate information and DSTs for agriculture has increased over time, these resources are still underutilized. Reasons for low use highlighted in this literature are: perceptions of low forecast accuracy, forecasts presented out of context, short forecast lead times, inflexible farm management and operations, and greater concern with non-weather risks. The main recommendation from this review is that interdisciplinary and participatory processes involving agricultural decision makers could significantly improve use of weather and climate DSTs. The second study is an analysis of a 2012 survey of over 2,300 agricultural advisors in four key corn producing Midwestern U.S. states--Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska. Little research has examined agricultural advisors\u27 views on climate change and how this affects advice provided, particularly regarding adaptation. Three-fourths of advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the role of human activities. Female advisors and those in the public sector are more likely to believe in anthropogenic climate change. Advisors\u27 belief in climate change is correlated with trust in information sources, particularly the IPCC and scientists. While most advisors agree that farmers should adapt to climate variability, attitudes toward adaptation varied significantly based on climate change beliefs--those who believed climate change is at least partly human caused more strongly agreed that adaptation is important. Perceiving greater risk from potential weather or climate impacts and noticing variable weather also significantly increased advisors\u27 agreement that adaptation is important. The final study explores the role of Midwestern U.S. farmers\u27 beliefs about climate change, perceived risk from weather and climate, and attitudes toward innovation and adaptation in their decisions to adapt to climate change (or not). Analyzing a 2012 survey of nearly 5,000 farmers across 22 Midwestern U.S. Watersheds, I investigate the most common weather and climate risk management strategies, such as purchasing additional crop insurance, implementing conservation practices, and adding new technology, and how these compare to crop farmers in Australia. U.S. farmers\u27 belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of changing weather patterns, climate risks to their farm and attitudes toward adapting are analyzed. I also explore whether some farmers are more open to new methods in farming, and if there is a relationship between attitudes toward innovation and use of weather information (seasonal climate forecasts) in agricultural decision-making, and other adaptation strategies. The most important predictors of farmers\u27 use of adaptation strategies were their perceptions of risk to their own farm, their attitudes toward innovation and their adaptation attitudes. Finally, I discuss insights from these three studies, and recommendations for how these findings could be applied to improve adaptation and thus resilience of U.S. agriculture to a changing climate