Sink or swim? potential for high faunal\ud turnover in Australian rivers under\ud climate change

Aim: Climate change threatens biodiversity in all ecosystems, and major shifts in species distributions are expected. Freshwater ecosystems are considered particularly vulnerable due to the ectothermic physiology of most freshwater species and their limited habitat extent and capacity to track climate trends. In this study, we examined what broad patterns in freshwater riverine species turnover might be expected under climate change across continental Australia and what are the implications of these patterns for aquatic species and the low aquatic biodiversity of some bioregions?\ud \ud Location: Continental Australia.\ud \ud Methods: We built statistical relationships between bioclimatic environments and the occurrence of species of four freshwater taxa (freshwater fish, crayfish, turtles and frogs) and examined trends in projected species turnover for a ‘business as usual’ climate scenario. We used Maxent to model species distributions and present the median projection across 18 global climate models. A recently derived national stream network was used to generate estimates of mean annual river flow and to produce realistic species distributions and migration options by restricting dispersal and migration opportunities usually available to riverine fauna.\ud \ud Results: High species turnover was driven overwhelmingly by potential local extinctions particularly for stream frogs and crayfish where their current biodiversity is largely confined to higher elevation headwater streams. We predicted high turnover for inland regions of Australia, which are arid and generally support fewer freshwater species.\ud \ud Main conclusions: Our analysis indicates that under the most severe emissions pathway, projected climate change is likely to cause substantial changes to the composition of faunal assemblages in Australian rivers well before the end of this century. While freshwater systems globally are subject to immediate and pressing threats from anthropogenic land and water use, management interventions addressing these pressures need to be considered within the context of climate change