Add to ORKGWho will be the next US President? Some commentators have argued that voter intention polls are flawed because it is difficult to know who will actually turn out to vote. To get around this problem, Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck use citizen forecasts, a “who do you think will win” survey question, to predict the election result
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
Increasingly, professional forecasters rely on citizen forecasts when predicting election results. F...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
The leading approaches to scientific election forecasting in the United States consist of structural...
The PollyVote project predicts the outcome of US presidential elections by combining forecasts from ...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
The leading approaches to scientific election forecasting in the United States consist of structural...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came a...
Political scientists have created numerous forecasting models for elections worldwide. In the United...
As the 2016 election season rolls on, it is looking increasingly likely that former Secretary of Sta...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
Increasingly, professional forecasters rely on citizen forecasts when predicting election results. F...
For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to...
The leading approaches to scientific election forecasting in the United States consist of structural...
The PollyVote project predicts the outcome of US presidential elections by combining forecasts from ...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
The leading approaches to scientific election forecasting in the United States consist of structural...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential elec...
The PollyVote uses evidence-based techniques for forecasting the popular vote in presidential electi...
For most commentators and pollsters, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election came a...
Political scientists have created numerous forecasting models for elections worldwide. In the United...
As the 2016 election season rolls on, it is looking increasingly likely that former Secretary of Sta...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
Increasingly, professional forecasters rely on citizen forecasts when predicting election results. F...