Prospects for Affordable Access to Space for Small Payloads, 2003-2012

Affordable access to space has been one of the key issues in the history of space exploration. It is a particularly critical issue for small payloads, where the cost of launch can run many times more than the cost of the payload itself, making many projects financially infeasible. This paper surveys the vehicles in service today as well as those announced or under development in the next decade that can address the small payload market. This analysis includes the estimated launch costs, launch rates, and capacities of the vehicles, as well as the likelihood that vehicles under development will actually enter service. Three capacity models show that the number of launch opportunities on small launch vehicles range from 212 to 471 over the next decade, depending on the availability of a number of vehicles currently under development. The introduction of partially-reusable launch vehicle systems like RASCAL and Xerus offer the best prospects for providing low-cost launch services for small satellites