Solar Energy Potential in China, South Korea and Japan

Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert das Solarenergiepotenzial in China, Südkorea und Japan, auf der Basis des vom National Renewable Energy Laboratory entwickelten Frameworks welches auf Ressourcen, Technik, Wirtschaft und Markt zielt. Das Ressourcenpotenzial ist die Menge an Sonnenstrahlung und Dauer der Verfügbarkeit (dh Sonnenscheindauer). Die technische Dimension umfasst das berechnete technische Potenzial einer Region. Das wirtschaftliche Potenzial erfasst die Kosten für Strom (LCOE) ausgewählter Energiequellen im Vergleich zu Photovoltaik. Anschließend umfasst die Analyse des Marktpotenzials eine Überprüfung des Marktpotenzials, Angebot und Nachfrage sowie die Trends der Energienutzung, aktuelle Preise und Marktteilnehmer und eine Analyse des politischen Rahmens in allen drei Ländern.The thesis analyzes the solar energy potential in China, South Korea, and Japan by using the framework developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on the dimensions: Resource, Technology, Economy and Market. More specifically, the resource potential focuses on the solar radiation quantity and the time of availability (i.e. sunshine duration). The technical dimension covers the calculated technical potential by regional area. The economic potential shows the levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) of selected energy sources in comparison to solar PV. Finally, the analysis of the market potential includes a review of the market potential, the development of demand and supply as well as the trends of energy use, current prices and market players, and a viability analysis of the policy framework in all three countries. The analysis is based on extensive literature analysis and quantitative data analysis of statistics provided by international organizations, national statistics, and scholarly articles. Data was collected through desk research as well as direct investigation at Chinese and South Korean national libraries, the Expo Solar PV Conference 2014 in South Korea and the International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems in China (SolarPACES 2014). Among the three countries, China shows the highest resource potential in terms of solar radiation. Among Chinese provinces, Tibet, Tsinghai, and Xinjiang have the most abundant solar resource. In South Korea, the two provinces Gyeongsangbuk and Gyeongsangnam indicate the highest solar radiation in relation to the rest of South Korea. In Japan, the south-western areas such as Osaka, Hiroshima, and Kumamoto receive higher solar radiation than the north-east. The technical potential was calculated by referring to the potential roof top area in Chinese provinces and to the potential surface useable for PV-modules on building sites in South Korean and Japanese cities. Results show that the Chinese provinces Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia have a large technical potential with respect to the area size. Seoul, Busan, and Daegu were calculated to have the highest technical potential regarding useable building sites among South Korean cities. In Japan, Tokyo was assessed as having the highest technical potential in terms of building areas for dwellings in Japan. Looking at the economic potential in three countries, solar energy still appears unattractive in terms of LCOE compared to conventional energies and to renewable energy sources, even if climate change cost are included into the calculation. Lastly, the market potential shows that solar energy still constitutes for a minority with respect to total energy consumption and renewable electricity generation in all three countries. However, it is revealed that companies are already gaining much profit out of solar energy related products reflecting a growing market. There are also positive signs of fostering solar energy in China, South Korea, and Japan on policy level