Impact of Short-Term Variations in the Generation Output of Geographically Dispersed PV Systems

When viewed in hourly intervals, a solar photovoltaic (PV) system appears to have a more stable output than usual. However, there are short-term rapid variations in its generation output that result from transient cloudiness and weather disturbances in the atmosphere. By using Monte Carlo simulations applied to a Markov model, this study demonstrates the short-term intermittency of the transient weather conditions and estimates the generation of geographically dispersed PV systems with a capacity of ten percent of peak demand of a statewide grid in one-minute intervals. This study found that geographically distributed PV systems evaluated in one-minute intervals could cope with peaks of a statewide power grid because of the smoothing effect caused by the geographical spread. The purpose of the exercise is to create a framework for integration and optimization of multiple generation sources in order to meet the uncertainty of the fast changing PV output under certain weather conditions.