Technology Foresight for IT Investment: Multi-Criteria Decision-Making versus Prediction Markets

This paper presents and compares two original techniques for disruptive technology assessment and foresight based on opposite paradigm: a management science approach (Multi-Criteria Decision-Making) versus a Web 2.0 approach (Prediction Market). These approaches are intended to support the management of a technology portfolio and the assessment of new technology by an IT organization. In order to explore the relevance of the research, we conducted several experiments in real environments. The results demonstrated that the rigor of management science and the participation of the Web 2.0 approach are complementary strengths for technology foresight