Integrating the Agricultural Sector into the New EU Climate Policy Framework for 2030: A Scenario Analysis to Highlight Potential Impacts and Challenges

According to the European Council's recent agreement on domestic climate and energy goals, greenhouse gas emissions from sectors outside the EU's Emission Trading Scheme have to be cut by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. So far no decision has been taken on agriculture's specific involvement in mitigation obligations or on how mitigation targets would be distributed between Member States. Based on hypothetical assumptions, we employ the CAPRI model to illustrate and highlight some potential impacts and challenges related to an integration of the agricultural sector into the new EU climate policy framework. Results of the hypothetical mitigation policy scenario show important impacts on EU agriculture, in particular the livestock sector, if the distribution key of the current Effort Sharing Decision would be rigidly applied as in our assumptions. The results highlight the importance of a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation policy instruments in the EU and its Member States, as well as the need for a wider consideration and adoption of technological mitigation options