A Markov chain model to enhanced the weather simulation capabilities of an operations and maintenance tool for a wave energy array

Operations and maintenance is a vital area of research in the push to make wave energy a commercial reality. A tool has previously been developed by Pelamis Wave Power to obtain reliable estimates for operational expenditure and ensure smooth running of wave energy arrays. Wave Energy Scotland is now tasked with the future development of this operations and maintenance tool. One of its key inputs is the wave and wind data used to simulate weather windows suitable for marine access. This paper details the creation and validation of a Markov Chain Model to enhance the weather simulation capabilities of the tool. This will ensure that the operations and maintenance strategy of wave energy arrays is modelled more realistically, resulting in an increased confidence in cost estimates and logistical arrangements.The author would like to thank the academic supervisors of this IDCORE project for their contributions, advice and support. Similar thanks must go to the engineers, past and present, who have dedicated their time to the Pelamis project. The industrial supervisor deserves a special mention, without her experience and guidance this study would not have been a success. The author would also like the IDCORE programme and its funding bodies, in particular the ETP (Energy Technology Partnership), for their support