Modelling dengue infection dynamics and the impact of control measures

Dengue is a vector-borne disease found across much of the world, with an increasing number of cases annually. This thesis explores the dynamics of dengue infection within an individual, and the possible impact of this at a population level. I use mathematical modelling and statistical analysis, tightly coupled with data, as a way of tying together the important components and processes during infection. I model the virus and immune dynamics, capturing the differences between individuals, disease severity and primary/secondary disease (with a focus on hypothesised secondary mechanisms). Within the immune dynamics I concentrate on antibody, looking at the role of antibody in limiting infection. Within this framework I also consider the impact on these dynamics of an antiviral. The final section of this thesis brings together this closer consideration of virus dynamics and considers their impact at a population level. Using data from biting experiments I am able to characterise the “infectivity” of an individual over time, how this varies between individuals and groups (as above), and how this compares to previous transmission modelling assumptions. In terms of control I look at how this “infectivity” is altered by antivirals and by wolbachia infected mosquitoes