Scalable dynamic simulation-based methodology for the energy retrofit of existing buildings

It is widely recognized that the building sector largely contributes to the total European energy consumption with a 40% influence on the total assessed energy uses. To this regard the EPBD recast Directive promotes nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) for the public and the private sector as a mandatory requirement by 2020. Given the low energy efficiency of old buildings, concerns about the state of the existing building stock should be seriously considered as most of the energy consumption is attributable to the existing buildings. Additionally, residential buildings are often seen as long-term assets, setting thus a low replacement rate, approximately 1% per year in Europe, of old buildings by new ones. To this regard, larger energy savings can be achieved with the energy retrofitting of the existing building stock, rather than with the construction of relatively small proportion of new high performing buildings. Therefore, the refurbishment of the existing building stock has to be primarily planned and accomplished in order to achieve a timely reduction on the buildings energy consumption. Concerning this, the EPBD recast, as policy driver for reducing European energy use in buildings, has been representing the first and main legislative reference. According to it Member States must ensure that minimum energy performance requirements are set with a view of achieving at least cost-optimal levels for buildings, building units and building elements" by means of a comparative methodology framework applied to new constructions and existing buildings undergoing major renovations. The methodology specifies how to compare energy efficiency measures in relation to their energy performance and to the cost attributed to their implementation, and how to apply these to selected reference buildings with the aim of identifying cost-optimal levels of minimum energy performance requirements. A cost optimal level is defined as the energy performance level, which leads to the lowest cost during the estimated economic lifecycle of the building. A measure is considered cost-effective when the cost of implementation is lower than the achievable benefits, during the expected life of the measure. This type of analysis allows defining energy renovation scenario based on their energy and economic optimum. Within the complex scenario described above, this Ph.D. thesis aims to provide a scalable methodology for the definition of energy retrofit scenarios to be applied to existing buildings, based on the use of dynamic building simulation models. The methodology targets the existing building stock given the large energy savings that can be achieved from existing buildings. It builds on an energy and economic assessment of energy efficiency measures applied to different building typologies. The energy and economic assessment are respectively carried out by means of dynamic building simulation and a cost-optimality approach. The cost optimal analysis was chosen for the aim of this study for its systematic approach in defining energy retrofit interventions based on their energy and economic optimum. The term "scalable" is used for defining the methodology as the studied energy retrofit scenarios can vary depending on the "scale" of the study. Two main scales of buildings can be distinguished: building stock or single buildings. When retrofit interventions are studied to be applied to wide portion of the building stock, as for example at national level, representative building models are used. They correspond to reference buildings representative of a certain building typology, construction age and geographic location. Within this thesis, a methodology for their definition was defined and various reference buildings for the Italian context were created. On the contrary, when it is necessary to study specific and customized retrofit measures, a single existing building is modelled. In this case, compared to the case of the reference buildings, larger quantity of data and a higher degree of detail are necessary. These building models are customized based on the existing buildings characterization (e.g. building envelope, system, etc) and when applicable, based also on data from monitoring. To this regards, when detailed information about the building real operation from monitoring is available, the building model need to be calibrated based on measured data. For a model to be calibrated, the building energy consumption predicted by the simulation program, has to match the consumption measured from monitoring. Calibrated models can be used for comparing the baseline situation of the building (calibrated and not retrofitted) with other simulation results relative to the application of building renovation interventions. To this regard, within this Ph.D. thesis, a literature review on the most common calibration techniques currently in use for the calibration of building models was conducted. Additionally two case studies were calibrated by means of two different approaches: a trial and error approach and an optimization-based calibration. For both scale of buildings (building stock and single buildings), dynamic building simulation was employed for the energy assessment. Building simulation application has expanded since mid-‘70s building simulation as an attempt to emulate reality. To date, it is much more common to employ building simulation in post construction or advanced building design phases rather than in early phases. In particular building simulation is frequently used for the prediction of energy savings by assessing energy retrofit interventions on existing buildings. To this regard, given its wide application and the high level of detail of the analysis performed (dynamic analysis), building simulation was chosen within this thesis, as a tool for the energy assessment of buildings and of the relative energy renovation interventions. Finally, the economic assessment of the energy retrofit measures was carried out by means of the cost optimal methodology, as defined by the EPBD recast. The methodology allowed defining energy renovation interventions based on their economical and energy optimum. The Directive requires to define different packages of energy efficiency measures, which can be applied to reference representative buildings but also to single and existing building for energy and economical assessments. The energy assessment of a building can be carried out with analytical or simplified methods, but dynamic building simulation is strongly suggested, as performed within this thesis. For the economic assessment, the global cost method was employed based on the calculation method of the Standard EN 15459 as advised by the EBPD. The global cost method considers, for each energy efficiency measure, the initial investment, the sum of the annual costs for every year (including energy costs) and the final value, all with reference to the starting year of the calculation period. In order to define different energy retrofit solution and set the minimum energy performance requirements, within the Ph.D. thesis, the cost optimal approach was applied to both the considered scale of buildings: to the building stock scale with three reference buildings, and to the single buildings scale with two calibrated buildings. A set of energy efficiency measures was defined and applied to the case studies for evaluating the financial and energy performance gap between the cost-optimal solutions and nZEB levels, respectively. For the building stock, different energy retrofit solutions are defined as final outcomes. Given the use of representative models (reference buildings), the retrofit solutions can be replicated to several buildings, among the same building typology. In this sense, different energy retrofit solutions can be established. On the other hand, for single buildings, the energy retrofit solution studied is specific and customized barely to the analyzed case stud