The Cost of Renewable Power Integration and the Transition to Low Carbon Emissions for Japan’s Energy Industry

An earthquake on March 11, 2011 caused catastrophic damage to Eastern Japan’s people, infrastructure and energy markets. This event signified the need for dramatic change towards sustainable energy. The recent Paris Accords on climate change has provided a framework for sustainability development towards CO2 emission reductions. Therefore, the experiment in this paper models the proposed increase to ~23 percent renewable generation as well as modest decreases in fossil fuel generation relative to generation demand and emissions reductions. The results of this paper will demonstrate that there is a ~56 percent chance under randomized input scenarios that cost increases remain within consumer tolerance levels. Further compounding this analysis, this probability falls to ~34 percent when considering targeted emissions levels. The incidence of these probabilities can be dramatically impacted by an overall decrease in the commodity inputs for fuel prices and an increase in costs levied against carbon emissions