The economic foundation of the United States Populist movement

Quantitative measures of farmers\u27 economic welfare are calculated in order to examine the motivation of the U.S. Populist movement in the late nineteenth century. In Chapter 2, using county-level Kansas data from 1882 to 1908, a measure of the percent loss of agricultural income from price uncertainty is provided. Comparing the loss measure from before Populism to its height, the median loss more than quadrupled. As the movement lost support, the median loss fell by one-half its previous value. In Chapter 3, a measure of farmers\u27 cash flow, the farmers\u27 surplus, is calculated for 1884 to 1908 for 77 counties in Nebraska. Using the farmers\u27 surplus measure, it is clear that farmers suffered from a squeeze in their cash flow during the Populist period. After the Populist period, their cash flow increased. In addition, for the same counties and years, the real value of farmers\u27 mortgage payments had there been no deflation is estimated. By comparing the real value of mortgage payments that farmers actually paid to the estimated values had there been no deflation, the cost of deflation to farmers during the Populist era can be evaluated. Deflation had only a small impact on farmers holding nominal interest rate mortgage contracts. In Chapter 4, county level data are used for Kansas and Nebraska to examine the 1892, 1896, and 1900 U.S. Presidential elections. Evidence is provided that the measures of economic well-being provided in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are correlated with Populist support