Add to ORKGLichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential election since 1860, retrospectively through 1980 and prospectively from 1984-2004. Given this record, it seems sensible to examine this index method. We tested how well the Keys model predicted the winner of the popular vote, and also how closely it forecasted the actual percentage of the two-party vote going to the incumbent ticket. The index method performs well compared with regression models. It also offers the opportunity to incorporate many policy variables. Index methods can be applied to various choice problems faced by organizations
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting an...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential e...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential election...
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, bas...
When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues...
This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting an...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
Abstract. Traditional election forecasting models are estimated from time-series data on relevant va...
Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues pol...
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues fa...
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index ” for forecasting U.S. presidential electio...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular twoparty vote shares ...
This paper establishes a model to forecast the Presidential election outcomes, particularly the 2016...
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets,...
In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, exp...