Development of individual tree based stand growth simulators : progress and applications.

Research since the early 1960's on the development of individual tree based stand growth simulators is reviewed with respect to evolving methodologies for treating overstory growth, competition, mortality, reproduction, stochastic errors, calibration, and validation. The present and potential accuracy and precision of the models is discussed along with applications to date. Strategies for using the models for succession analysis and decision-making regarding choices among management treatments are also considered. It is apparent that these models can be expensive to develop, but represent one of the most powerful approaches available for predicting forest change. They are also a convenient basis for forest managers and ecological scientists to work together effectively. Pitfalls in the process of model development and usage are also discussed.Research supported by the College of Forestry, University of Minnesota, St. Paul and the USDA Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station. Paper presented at Workshop on Forest Succession, sponsored by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, June 8-14, 1980, Mountain Lake, Virginia