WP 99-18 August 1999 Working Paper Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics . Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-7801 USA THE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN A WEALTHIER, MORE POPULOUS WORLD Thomas T. Poleman .. It is the Policy of Cornell University actively to support equality of educational and employment opportunity. No person shall be denied admission to any educational program or activity or be denied employment on the basis of any legally prohibited discrimination involving, but not limited to, such factors as race, color, creed, religion, national or ethnic origin, sex, age or handicap. The University is committed to the maintenance of -affirmative action programs which will assure the continuation of such equality of opportunity. ... ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the global demand for food during the next 50 years and offers a simple methodology for quantifying the impact rising incomes will have on per capita demand. © 1999 Thomas T. Poleman -.. mE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN A WEALTHIER, MORE POPULOUS WORLD· Estimating the world's human "carrying capacity" has intrigued the minds of men since even before the time, 200 years ago, when Malthus (1798) wrote his famous Essay on the Principle of Population, and, as might be expected, their conclusions have varied greatly. In his fascinating survey of the subject, Joel Cohen (1995:402-418) documents no fewer than 66 such inquiries, some serious, others less so, whose verdicts ranged from a half billion persons to an even 1,000 billion (Table I). Among the more serious, E. G. Ravenstein (1891) in 1890, when global population was of the order of 1.5 billion, reckoned that there remained the potential to support another 4.5 billion. This was in a paper offered to the Geographical and Economic Sections of the British Association, and since much of the potentially productive land envisioned by Ravenstein lay in the tropics, those present went on to debate whether Europeans could survive for prolonged periods in such regions, there "to teach the natives the dignity of labor, and to lead him on to a higher plane of civilization" (Ravenstein 1891:31). Thirty-seven years later, at the first congress of the International Society of Soil Science, Penck (1928:108) calculated that food could be produced for almost 16 billion people; and 50 years after that Roger Revelle (1976: 177) put the figure at 40 billion, if a high-starchy-staple-ratio diet of 2,500 calories daily were assumed. Revelle's estimate was one of a number made in the mid-1970s, a time of heightened interest in agricultural matters because of the just-ended "World Food Crisis." Two others made about the same time are of interest because ofthe authors' competence and because they spelled out their methodologies in some detail. Colin Clark (1968), for many years Director of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute at Oxford, computed the amount of land per person needed to produce the ingredients of various diets. Using climate as the constraining factor, he calculated that sufficient land existed to support 47 billion people at the dietary level enjoyed in the United States in the 1960s-say, per capita availabilities of 3,250 kcals., of which 39 percent were derived from animal products and 22 percent from the starchy staples-or 157 billion people if the high-starchy-staple-ratio diet experienced by the Japanese people immediately after the war were postulated (Clark 1968:153). Buringh and his associates (1975) in the Tropical Soil Science Department of the Agricultural University in Wageningen, The Netherlands, based their calculations on soils and their potential and expressed their findings in terms of grain equivalents. They calculated the world's maximum production potential to be of the order of 50 billion metric tons, but reduced this to 32.5 billion tons on the grounds that prevailing dietary patterns required only 65 percent of the cultivated area to be planted to cereals. This being 23 times the actual level of cereal production-I,400 million tons in 1974-76-it followed that the maximum number of people the world could feed was 23 times the then number of 4.1 billion: 93 billion people. Apart from demonstrating that the world's food producing potential is huge, the usefulness of such calculations is questionable. Ofnecessity they incorporate heroic assumptions regarding land use, potential yields, and price incentives-assumptions which cannot be verified until long after the conclusions are forgotten. Further, no one seriously argues today that population growth is not amenable to control and that the number of people computed by Revelle, Clark, or Buringh will ever need to be fed. The approach to discussing the world's long-term ability to feed itself should therefore be the inverse of that conceptualized by Malthus. He reasoned that populations would increase to whatever whatever limit was set by the supply of food. Today it is far more realistic to take expected levels of population as the given • Prepared for presentation at the Centre de Investigaci6n en A/imentaci6n y Desarrollo, A.C., Hennosillo, Sonora, Mexico, November 1999. Lillian Thomas prepared the tables and figures and typed the manuscript. I 2 and to consider whether the supply of food can be made to increase sufficiently to sustain them at whatever dietary level their income would warrant. The first step, then, is to project demand, and the aim ofthis paper is to offer a simple methodology for doing this. More specifically, I will focus on a simple technique for quantifying the impact rising income will have on per capita demand. For just as rapidly growing population was the principal factor driving the huge growth in demand during the latter half of the 20th century, so rising incomes will be the chiefpropellant during the first 50 years ofthe 21 st• Table I. Selected Estimates of the Number of People the Earth Could Support Billion Year of Peo Ie Estimate Year of Estimate Princi al Author 1679 Leeuwenhoek 1695 King 1741 Sussmilch 1765 Sussmilch 1891 Ravenstein 1898 Fircks 1902 Pfaundler 1917 Knibbs 1924 East 1924 Pearl & Reed 1025 Wickens 1925 Penck 1925 Fischer 1935 Smith 1936 Pearl & Gould 1937 Hollstein 1940 Boerman 1945 Pearson & Harper 1946 Mukerjee 1946 Salter 1947 Fawcett 1949 Spengler 1952 Darwin 1954 Brown 1957 Brown et al. 1958 Clark 1960 Baade 1961 Kleiber 1964 Frernlin 1964 Cepede et al. 1965 Schmitt 1966 Zierhoffer 1967 Clark Princi Author DeWit Hulett Austin & Brewer Ehrlich Muckenhausen Lieth & Blaxter Revelle Buringh et aJ. Whittaker & Likens Revelle Eyre & Blaxter Marchetti Gilland Kovda Mann Westing Gates Higgins et al. Farrell et al. Hardin Calvin Hudson Chen et al. Raven Meadows et al. Tuckwell & Koziol Ehrlich et al. Heilig Waggoner Pimentel et al. Smil Dutch Scientific Council Billion Peo Ie 79-1,022 1 40-60 0.5-1.2 35-40 100 38-48 6.7 5-7 40 17 1,000 7.5 14 <4.5 2.0-3.9 12 4.-32.8 6.1 300 22 9.8-19.3 2.8-5.5 <5.3 7.7 23.8 much < 5.5 12-14 >10 3 10-11 .' 11-44 13.4 6.3-12.5 4-6.6 13.9 6.0 8.1 10.9 132 5.2 2 6-12 7.7-15.9 6.2 5.7 2.6 13.3 5.6-13.3 0.9-2.8 7.0-8.6 5 6.5-10 1.8-7.2 6-10 50 3.7-7.7 28 30 16-800 107_109 10 30 41 47-157 1967 1970 1971 1971 1973 1973 1974 1975 1975 1976 1978 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1994 1994 Source: Cohen, Joel E. 1995. How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York: Norton. 3 The Population Component The population statistics are well known. The world's population remained essentially stable from biblical times to about 1650, when it stood at perhaps .5 billion. It reached 1 billion by 1800 and by 1950 stood at 2.5 billion, two-thirds of whom lived in the developing countries. There followed a half century of population explosion and in 1999 the world's population passed the 6 billion mark, a 2.5-fold increase in just 50 years; of these 6 billion, 90 percent are residents of developing ~untries. Though the population will continue to grow by about 80 million annually for the next two decades, it seems clear that the great population explosion will draw near to an end in most parts ofthe world by 2050. The demographic transition-the process whereby a country's population moves from stability at a low level to a similar state with much higher absolute numbers-is among the best documented trends in recent history, its operation having been demonstrated in literally hundreds of investigations. In England, one ofthe better documented countries, the transition required almost 200 years, from 1750 to 1950, to run its course, during which time the population rose eight-fold, from 5 million to over 40 million (Figure 1). Even though the transition did not begin in earnest until about 1950 in most of today's developing countries, enough time has passed for it to be evident that it need no longer be such a lengthy process. Birth rates are falling with unprecedented rapidity in the economically dynamic countries of Asia's Pacific Rim (Figure 2). In Singapore only 15 years were needed for it to fall from 40 per thousand to less than 20; one-tenth the time required in England. The decline in Hong Kong has been equally dramatic, as has been the drop in China. Even prior to promulgation of China's one-ehild-per-family target in the late 1970s the rate had dropped within a decade to a little over 20 per thousand. Less spectacular, but nonetheless steady has been the decline in Latin America. By the early 1990s the birth rate had fallen below 25 per thousand for the region as a whole, whereas it was half again as much in the 1970s. Cuba, of course, has been the pacesetter, but Brazil no longer lags too far behind and the fertility rate in Mexico now stands at about 2.5 children per woman whereas it was almost three times that in 1965 (Dillon 1999). Most of the world, as a consequence, can look forward to something approaching population stability within the next 50 years. The only exceptions are Sub-Saharan Africa and the Islamic countries of Western Asia and North Africa. In most of the Moslem countries the decline in births has thus far been relatively modest, while it is not an exaggeration to say that it has hardly begun to fall in the heart of Africa. The outlook therefore is for population growth to continue in Africa well after it has been contained elsewhere. The medium variants of the projections prepared by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the U.S. Census Bureau all suggest that after 2025 between a third and a half of global population growth will be concentrated in Sub-Saharan Mrica. To this forecast demographers invariably add an important caveat: the AIDS epidemic raging in the eastern and southern parts of the continent. Because AIDS is heterosexually transmitted in Africa and most Africans lack access to preventive measures or medical facilities, many observers fear that its impact on population growth will become increasingly pronounced. Indeed, some go so far as to predict that in such badly affiicted countries as Uganda population trends may switch by 2010 from their present high rate of growth to an actual decrease in numbers. ---4 Figure 1. The Demographic Transition in England, 1700-1990 Adapted from Weeks, J. R. 1992. Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues. Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Co.:145. Figure 2. Birth Rate Declines in Selected Countries and Regions, 1950-55 to 1985-90 zambia Kenya-,....... ..-, Ghana,-=.::-------Paklatan ' ', --:.-.:... . ---~ -~-----~ ~ .. ---,,, -.. Egypt ..... ,", IndIa" , ........ '" LAnN AMERICA ~ .... " ~ .... " .?- , ' ,'-------- China , - - - """ - ,- - - - Singapore-- AFRICA .•... ISLAMIC - Hong Kong - LAnN AMERICA - - - EAST ASIA 50 40 30 20 10 -OL...-_-~-_....L-_----'-----'--------'----'-----'-_---J 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 . 1985 1990 Data from United Nations. 1993. World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision. New York: Department for Economic and Sociallnfonnation and Policy Analysis. 5 Regional Population Prospects The most recent UN projections (1999) put the global population in 2050 at between 7.3 billion and 10.7 billion. If future growth follows the path delineated by the medium-variant projection, near stability should be attained at a level of slightly less than 9 billion persons, 90 percent of whom will reside in what are now the developing countries. Today's developed countries will grow not at all, the 100 million increase in the United States being offset by a similar declir1e in Europe (UN 1999). Asia will remain the most populous continent, with half again its present population, and East/Southeast Asia and South Asia will each harbor about a quarter ofmankind, between 2 and 2.5 billion people. China and India will remain the most populous countries, each having about 1.5 billion inhabitants. The population of Latin America is projected to level out at rather less than twice its current level: somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 million. The medium projection for Mexico is 147 million, half again what it is today. Rather greater rates of growth are foreseen for the Islamic belt of countries, considerably above what might be expected from the region's income per capita. The literature is surprisingly silent on the reasons for this, but the tenants of the Muslim faith, particularly regarding women's place in society, doubtless playa role. The great unknown, to repeat, is Sub-Saharan Africa. If the medium variants come to pass, rapid growth will continue well after 2050 and not stabilize until it reaches about 2.3 billion, four times its 1995 level. Ifsuch numbers give weight to the pessimism ofmodem-day Malthusians, they tell only part of the story. The demand for agricultural products reflects not just the number of mouths that must be fed, but also the type of diet they will be able to afford. Rising incomes and dietary change are likely to pose a considerably greater challenge to agriculture in the future than does population growth. Incorporating the Impact of Income Growth To project the demands on agriculture any future population may pose requires a number of simplifying assumptions. Ideally demand should be expressed in terms of the multitude of individual conunodities which make up the global agricultural economy. For the short term and for countries with reliable statistics, this is possible to estimate, but not easily. Globally and for the long run, it presents impossible challenges. A first simplification, therefore, is to think in aggregate rather than individual conunodity terms and to express this aggregate demand as calories per person per day. Past experience is not an unreliable indicator ofwhat this will be at various income levels. The second simplification is to incorporate the impact of the income/dietary change relationship by distinguishing between calories consumed directly (final calories) and those needed to feed the animals which convert them into the meat, dairy products, and eggs ultimately consumed. This latter figure may be thought of as indirect, or primary, calories, and obviously varies with the final product and the conditions under which it is produced, but it depends above all on the percentage of final calories in the diet derived from animal products, a figure easy to conceptualize and calculate from food balance sheets. It should not be thought, however, that the total of direct and indirect calories so calculated will yield a precise estimate of the future demand for food. Much is ignored, notably the pulses, fats and oils, 6 sugar, fruits and vegetables, and no account is taken of the contribution of tree crops, pasture and fisheries. But this total of direct and indirect calories, especially when expressed in tenns of millions of tons of grain equivalents, gives us a measure by which to express relative magnitudes and in this way note the likely impact of future trends in population and income. Even if future populations are taken as givens and precision in the forecast is not expected, three problems warrant exploration before attempting to project grain equivalent demand. One concern is the income figures to use. So that some comparability between countries may be achieved, it is necessary to convert incomes into a common currency, and alternative approaches to such conversions exist. A second set of problems deals with the relationships between income and diet. These are not uniform around the world. Body size, climate, and activity patterns can have an impact on the apparent consumption of direct calories, as can dietary taboos (such as vegetarianism) on the proportion of calories derived from animal products. Finally, there is the matter of the energy conversion ratio to use in estimating the primary energy needed to feed livestock. Such ratios differ from one product to another, within countries depending on mailagement practices, and from one part of the world to another. Converting Income to a Common Currency The conventional practice for converting the world's many currencies into a common one, usually U.S. dollars, is to use the prevailing market exchange rates. Such conversions, however, need not necessarily reflect differences in actual purchasing power. Recent work has shown that most developing countries have incomes which can actually purchase quantities of goods and services several times greater than that which exchange rate conversions suggest is the case. The reason market exchange rates are imperfect converters of income into a common currency is that while such rates tend to equalize prices of internationally traded goods, big differences can and do remain in the prices of nontraded goods and services. Developing countries tend to have cheaper services-domestic help is the classic example-than developed ones and countries in the former Soviet bloc kept food, housing, and energy artificially cheap. Converting these countries' GOP using market exchange rates therefore has the effect of systematically understating their real output and income. The International Comparison Program (ICP) sponsored by the United Nations attempts to correct for these biases by collecting and comparing prices for over 1,500 commodities, services, and labor inputs representing the universe of items priced in a country. The price comparisons that emerge are then aggregated into an overall purchasing-power-parity (PPP) figure used to relate income to a common currency unit (Summers and Heston 1991). ICP estimates of per capita GOP converted into US dollars using PPP conversions have been available in several forms since 1989, the most complete being the Penn World Table (PWT), an annex ,to Summers and Heston (1991). The versions of that table used here, PWT (Mark 5.5) and PWT (Mark 5.6) were released in 1993 and 1995, respectively, cover the years 1950 through 1992 for most countries, and have 1985 as the base year (PWT 5.5 1993; PWT 5.6 1995). The picture the PPP conversions paint of the global economy is strikingly different from that conveyed ifmarket exchange rates are used. The developing countries' share ofworld output circa 1990 as calculated by the International Monetary Fund jumps from 18 to 34 percent, while that of the industrialized countries drops from 73 percent to 54 (IMF 1993). The countries of the former Soviet block account for the remainder. China becomes the world's second or third biggest economy and India moves up to fifth place. Some country comparisons as of 1985 are shown in Table 2. In all instances the PPP conversion points to per capita incomes considerably above those suggested by exchange rate conversions, typically by a factor of three or four among the poorest countries. (As countries become wealthier-and more involved in the global economy-the differences between the two conversions lessen.) Such figures may seem overly 7 large to those accustomed to thinking of the typical third-worlder as being dirt-poor, but this in no way diminishes their validity. The Linkage Between. Income and Diet Composition Although in physical appearance they may differ markedly, the diets of poor people the world over have a number of things in common. One is that a high proportion of the dietary energy and a fair share of the protein will come from foods composed principally of starch. These "starchy staples" are the cereals and the starchy fruits, roots, and tubers. Depending on the staple, this dietary cornerstone will either be served steamed or boiled (as with rice and potatoes), a leavened (wheat) or unleavened (maize) bread, or as a doughy past or stiff porridge (cassava, yams, and plantains). It will normally be accompanied by side dishes or sauces, which, in addition to adding flavor to an otherwise bland meal, will contribute considerable protein and the bulk of the fat, vitamin, and mineral content. A second characteristic of poor people's diets is that the protein in these sauces and side dishes will tend to be more vegetable than animal in origin. Thus the nutritional rationale underlying the traditional Mexican diet of tortillas andfrijoles. The starchy staples dominate the diets of the poor everywhere for a very simple reason: their cheapness, whether expressed in terms of market price or production cost. Far less land and far less labor are typically needed to produce a thousand calories of energy value in the form of the starchy staples than in the form of any other foodstuff. Meat and vegetables by comparison are inefficient converters: vegetables because their calorie content is low, meat because an animal must be fed between two and ten pounds ofgrain for it to produce a pound ofedible product. As wealth increases the contribution of the starchy foods falls and a still largely vegetarian diet becomes more diversified; this is Bennett's Law, observed in the 1930s by M. K. Bennett (1941; 1954:165168), the pioneering student of world food economics. Then products of animal origin-meat, eggs, and Table 2. Per Capita Income (SUS 1985) Computed by Market Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity, Selected Countries, 1985 Per Capita Income (SUS 1985) GNP Market Exchange Purchasing Power Parity India 270 1,116 China 310 1,811 Ghana 380 759 Egypt 610 1,859 Thailand 800 2,422 Brazil 1,640 3,951 Venezuela 3,080 6,037 Singapore 7,420 8,153 Canada 13,680 15,695 Purchasing-power-parity GDP per capita figures are expressed n 1985 U.S. dollars and are from: -Penn World Table (Mark 5.5). 1993. Annex to Summers, Robert and A. Heston. 1991. "The Penn World Table .....(Mark 5): An Expanded Set ofIntemational Comparisons, 1950-1988." Quarterly Journal o/Economics. May. Exchange rate figures are from: World Bank 1987. World Development Report. 1987. New York: Oxford University Press. 8 dairy products-begin to play an increasingly important role in the diet, supplementing or replacing the vegetable protein, and the consumption of sugars, fats and oils, and fruits and vegetables rises. This dietary evolution seems to be universal, although the exact modifications which take place will vary in accordance with local circumstances such as market availability and price and cultural considerations such as religious taboos. Figure 3 illustrates how this course of dietary change is related to income and where the various countries of the world stood in the progression as of 1984-86, as reported in the food balance sheets published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO 1991). Average per capita incomes are expressed in terms of 1985 U.S. dollars and were calculated using purchasing-power-parity rather than exchange-rate conversions. Incomes of the order of SUS 8,000, or about half that then prevailing in the United States, were sufficient to complete the dietary transition. In the poorest countries, where incomes average SUS 1,000 or less, the percentage contribution of the starchy staples to total energy availabilities-the starchy staple ratio-can approach or even exceed 80 percent. It then drops rapidly as countries attain middle-income status. With incomes in the SUS 3,0004,000 range, ratios of 50-60 percent are the rule. Thereafter, location and diet influence the extent to which the starchy staple ratio will fall. In Mexico where average PPP income in the rnid-1980s was of the order of SUS 5,300 the ratio was 49 percent; in 1997 it had fallen only two points, to 47 percent-a rather depressing commentary on the state ofthe Mexican economy in recent years (FAO 1999). With products of animal origin the direction of change induced by income growth is, of course, in the opposite direction. At very low income levels even fewer than five percent of the calories in the diet will derive from such products, whereas in the wealthy countries of Europe and North America the range is from 30 to 40 percent. Accompanying these changes in diet composition is an increase in total energy availabilities. In the poorest countries, the balance sheet calculation suggests this can be as low as 2,000 kcal. per person per day, although this may well understate reality. As incomes increase it rises rapidly to 3,500 kcal., where it levels out in all parts of the world except the Far East. It is evident that while the broad course of dietary evolution holds for all countries, few of them follow exactly the progression of change suggested by the trend lines shown in Figure 3. The deviations are attributable to a number offactors (Sanderson 1995): • A country's agricultural resource endowment. (1) • The extent to which the market is distorted by governmental manipulation of prices and trade. (2) • The degree to which the health hazards associated with the consumption of particular foods, especially animal products, are known to a population. (3) • The pervasiveness ofdietary taboos. (4) -• A lag in dietary change associated with very rapid income growth. (5) • The pervasive role of rice in some Asian diets. (6) • Differences in the body size, age distribution, and activity patterns of a population. (7) I 5500 3000 III !! g.. g ;'2 BOO 2000 Figure 3. Indicators of Dietary Change Related to Purchasing-Power-Parity GOP Per Capita, Selected Countries, About 1985 I , , I,4000 'r-=--:::--:-:--=:r-::-~=-------r---------"""--------~-I I Per Capita Dally Energy Availabilities I: rn:c' / I I ..... __ __ • Itli'8nCI I SW'lU.I1~ USA .0.,.".. I! I ,ot;¥. ,i I ----- - ---'-r---'---'- -Gfrmlny ._-.,i~~ • USSR ,j • Spt~ • 1 (,"lid•• (II'/Pt .~ _ .. _ .. - .. -:;":.- ~ : 1"M. I , to, --r 1 500 L-- I I I I I I , 1 I I ! , L I 'I .&,g,""n,.' /' .lJ( .. Sytl., II I I • ·~.co I I I .Tur-..y I .' I I II I " I( .," kJr'Igl(~.T,,~s1. / I .I(,or.' : r~~. I: I J", lrI t:. ICol1' llel"/ ',MI\,rtllt,r, ~'.l. "'j' IOI~' ~II'I' ?'''~ :0" I I '..",..11.· /' .ChI. I MillY'" I I • 'CdCln"tll.1 .v....Ne'l. I I IvOl')' Co.,. I I I / .Srll-*' I 1 ,I 'S'Mp I ,':'Irlit ,~~,:,...nd I I~~""'!.l P.IMt,., • Plrll ' l~_n(" I ,IZ.r' "~.rf. I ,I ......cIUh I ,I I I ,II ,I I I , I I DMm,l1l'Percent of Calories from Animal Products , I I,.."" SMtnrl.ndI • I I I 40 I" ,ory " , .....:(.-. H:. '. : t ,i'- i I .lJ( " .C.,m us>~~..., " ,~- c.l\IId•• ,,I " " I , I,I " I 30 :i';>:':'!...:-::;...... : I : .... :~~,.:- :' ~.~ ... :. , ."'.... :~S»_. ,:. i:., : :,i: ::,:U ct 20 , .-.- ,; ......... /' j. ,; _. _ I .... ,.c ~c.... ....,.. •....~. J..",J~I N .- .,"..",., , .. • ", 00.:'" /,' >'0";' I ' _.. T 1".'" I 10 ••_ • ~~. ',;"':T." " ....rl.... I T,nll"" .TIl.....,L" ' •• MIl' ' ::: I"";:vory c.... : I • I.'.onf....~'" l..... ' ' I'" \. • I I o t .....rl. _... I '~I'I ! I I'l I J !' - I , I o 4,001 8,CXX> 12.001 16,CXX> Per Capita Purchasing-Power-Parity GOP (1985 US$) .0 '0 c 4) u ~ 10 00 ." >0 L I I ~.r ..."'Y : : : 'o",m." c_~ I • ' JO : I I • I " I S.-ttnrt.nd us, 'i t II I I I o 4,001 8,CXX> 12,CXX> 16,CXX> Per Capita Purchasing-Power-Parity GOP (1985 US$) Percent of Calories from Starchy Staples \. ·onf-" I_ I \ .e".... \.,• lli,. ...~r1. \ S....OII. tvory Co", 'T:~~-\. 1'l'IcJ. -TlIlltnd • (GYpt I .ltor•• .Srll.... I • PPM"; I \ .....Jg...I.-Turi". I ,.fll.\ IT"rll,; \0• Meurltlu. I :.~:,~:" .......ic:o I II I ,rUit : .'- !. I \ I JIJ/P': '", .,'USSA I I .Colol't"til , I ~. I \ V~ruN I: I , . I' I 'P~ " K "I' I \ :1·$.\'IOIPGf. tobrV (I1g I • CO~. Ale. :'" '.•.•...•. I ...'0 ....11". I I • C1"U I I 'Hv"O',..,.~ ,, II .~ :1r1'4.", I II __ I I I........... .'" ,"T.rt<. Data are from Appendix Table 1. 'I I 10 Thus, the "excess" consumption of animal products in Poland, Hungary, and the former USSR can be attributed to (2), meat products having been heavily subsidized in the former Soviet block of countries, whereas in Argentina, Ireland, and Denmark, lands abundantly endowed with pasture, it doubtless is a reflection of (l). Lower than expected utilization of animal products in Korea may in part be explained by (5), in part by (6). Indeed, these factors, plus (7), would appear to go far toward explaining why the countries of East and Southeast Asia demonstrate the greatest deviations from the expected dietary changes associated with rising incomes. For the projection of demand over the long term, the problem is less whether these factors impact on the course of the dietary transition, but whether their deviant effects are temporary or lasting. Figure 4 is instructive in this connection. In it are plotted individual country trends for the years 1964-66, 1969-71, 1974-76, 1979-81, and 1984-86. The income figures are for the mid-year of these averages and again are PPP conversions expressed in constant 1985 U.S. dollars. The hand-fitted trend lines from Figure 3 are reproduced in the individual panels. Developed Countries. All the developed countries plotted in the panels on the extreme left have passed through the dietary transition and, with the notable exception of Japan, display similar dietary features. In all the starchy staple ratio has dropped to the neighborhood of 20-22 percent and the apparent consumption of final calories has leveled out at about 3,500 kcal. There is, however, conflicting evidence as to where the ultimate contribution of animal products stabilizes. Denmark-where dairy and fishery products loom particularly Jarg~is clearly an anomaly at 45 percent. But it is by no means certain whether considerations of health and the substitution of vegetable for animal fats in the diet will bring it to the 33-34 percent range found in North America or whether it will remain at the 37-39 percent level prevailing in the principal European countries. 1be trend in the United Kingdom suggests the former eventuality, whereas the French and German evidence points to the latter. In Japan the percentage of calories from animal products is at any given income appreciably below what the Western model would predict and the starchy staple ratio higher. Per capita disappearance of final calories in Japan also stabilizes well below the expected level. Of the various explanations that have been offered for the former two deviations, I suspect the most important is (2), the price of food being inordinately high in Japan. 1bat the domestic price of rice ranges between six and eight times that prevailing on the world market is well known, and to purchase animal protein in a Tokyo restaurant is to risk financial as well as digestive distress. Both reflect policies designed to protect the Japanese farmer from overseas competition. East and Southeast Asia. The deviations from the Western model found in Japan are also displayed in the other East and Southeast Asian countries plotted in the next set of panels. Whereas daily apparent consumption offinal calories levels out at ±3,500 Kcal. in the West, the figure is more like 2,8003,000 Kcal. in the Far East. Smaller body size and reduced wastage, particularly of anirnal fats lost in cooking, doubtless account for these particular differences, but other factors are probably also at work. One is (6), the pervasive role played by rice in the region's dietary. In both Singapore and Hong Kong, from the point of view of dietary evolution the most advanced countries in the Far East, the decline in the starchy staple ratio appears to falter in the range of 35-38 percent, while the contribution of animal products seems to go no higher than the neighborhood of 30 percent. So long as rice remains the cornerstone of most horne-prepared meals in the Far East, such figures may well represent the final stage of -the dietary transition. Otherwise, the data for East and Southeast Asia offer telling confirmation of the impact rapid economic growth can have on dietary change. South Asia. Incomes are still too low in the South Asian countries plotted for us to know whether the East and Southeast Asia pattern will be replicated there. Because of smaller body size apparent consumption of energy may level out at the same 2,800-3,000 Kcal. level. As to the impact of dietary 11 Figure 4. Indicators of Dietary Change Related to Per Capita GDP, Selected Countries by Region, About 1965. 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 (Purchasing-Power-Parily GDP in 1985 US$) Per Capita Daily Energy Availabilities P~~:::.; __ , . . Do.~" ' '."m'.'"I"" ~"// ---.. / ,- /-: .... _0:::..-. .- •c•••, V__·..··..·~C.~~~A , ... ,. C•••d • ~:.:.. l(orell Slngllpor ..~';5 /.. ~lnYSID ' .• Thailand _~~?~~."oo. '00'~J''''. -.--J.....~ lSOOI--', /i2bOO Ii ,._, / '·"d·tr'(,::::·.. 1Iu= ~.- I19lH-a5 ISl69·7\ 151H·16 1511\1·61 1984~ Pnklstlln AlgerieIndonas III 1soor 1 I ~1M' '.1M' !,' I I t.1 ,! I It! , I I ..fAA! ' l500f I I , I I I ! I I I I I ! ! I I! ! I I)QO! I I .lu' ! I ! d I~r! ! I I I I l~~ '.L_' ,I Percent of Calories from Animal Products Den_llrk UK Irelllnd.-~-~ .....~.~ ~. ~ll<;' __-:,,:,,~A ---/" S"ltzerlend" Cllnllde __ Hong Kong Frllnce _.Singapc.re/-;;:..r u v ..-_.. -y.c._..~~. ~ \. . H".,.I. J ..... PoklstllnPhllIPp,n.. <;~ :i /,.J"pen~ TO"~' J<,'. _:~ "r1,1,/lOt- Sydo_41nl- 0 ~,~o~ "Ii I '" (nd.I/>/ J,.:::::'~eurltlusC"'."~~,o". Tunlslo ,~.tY·jEgypt"V\----. Sri Lonko ~"'_"..._ ..... !nd""'eslo .......,.._. / ", " Percent of CalOries from Starchy Staples II .. " "" ~ u~ Bonglod.. ~" " ~\. \j If . '0,"" 111~'\ rI ~\ Sri LllnknThn"l-:;'nd , , ~ .\ t-I..,urltlus;'-....~~ Jllp " N ~ W2...·1· 1~2;1··•. : MMT : .."'0 . ' . '" .a; .. ..". .::: ;;: • 5 5 5 5 5 _ 5 :> 5 _ :> :> :> 'f;' >I .... o oo 1950-1990 2.2x 5x 3.7x 3.4x 2xincrease 2 3 4 0 Area (100 million hectares) 3.2x * Data from FAO, Production Yearbook (various issues) . ., I 24 exchanged for its deficiencies in food production. With such a mutually advantageous basis for trade, the conflict between Islam and Christendom envisioned by many need not take place. As to Mexico, it matters little that it may never be able to achieve self-sufficiency in food. When I wrote 30 years ago that its salvation lay in closer economic integration with the United States, my Latino students laughed. NAFTA is an arrangement whose wisdom amazes us all. • 25 CITATIONS Bennett, M. K. 1941. ''Wheat in National Diets." Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute. 18(2):37-76. Bennett, M. K. 1954. The World's Food. New York: Harper & Brothers. Buringh, P., H. D. 1. van Heemst, and G. 1. Staring. 1975. Computations ofthe Absolute Maximum Food Production ofthe World. Wageningen: Agricultural University. Chrispeels, Maarten 1. and David Sadava. 1977. Plants, Food, and People. San Francisco: Freeman. Clark, Colin. 1968. Population Growth and Land Use. London: Macmillan. Cohen, Joel E. 1995. How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York: Norton. Dillon, Sam. 1999. "Smaller Families to Bring Big Change in Mexico." The New York Times. June 8:1. FAO. 1991. Food Balance Sheets, 1984-86 Average. Rome. FAO. 1996. "Requirements and Population Growth." World Food Summit Technical Paper 10. Provisional version. June 1996. FAO. 1999. "Food Balance Sheet for Mexico, 1997." www.apps.fao.org/ IMF (International Monetary Fund). 1993. World Economic Outlook. May. Malthus, T. R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle ofPopulation .... London: reprinted 1906. Penck, A. 1928. "Das Hauptproblern der Physischen Anthropogeographie." Proceedings and Papers of the First International Congress ofSoil Science. Washington, D.C.: 98-116. Penn World Table (Mark 5.5). 1993. Annex to Summers, Robert and A. Heston. 1991. Penn World Table (Mark 5.6). 1995. Annex to Summers, Robert and A. Heston. 1991. Ravenstein, E. G. 1891. "Lands of the Globe Still Available for European Settlement." Proceedings of the Royal Geographical Society. N.S.13:27-35. Reid, J. T. 1975. "Comparative Efficiency of Animals in the Conversion of Feedstuffs into Human Foods." 1975 Cornell Nutrition Conferencefor FeedManufacturers. Ithaca, N.Y.: 16-24. ReveIle, Roger. 1976. "The Resources Available for Agriculture." SCientific American. 235(3):165-178. Sanderson, F. H. 1988. "The Agro-Food Filiere: A Macroeconomic Study on the Evolution of the • Demand Structure and Induced Changes in the Destination of Agricultural Outputs." In G. Antonelli and A. Quadrio-Curzio, eds., The Agro-Technological System Towards 2000. Amsterdam: North-HoIland. Sanderson, F. H. 1995. Personal communication. 3 October. 26 Summers, Robert and A. Heston. 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): International Comparisons, 1950-1988." Quarterly Journal ofEconomics. May. An Expanded Set of U.N. 1999. ''World Population www.popin.org/pop1998/1.htm Nearing 6 Billion Projected Close to 9 Billion by 2050." • Appendix Table 1. Dietary Indicators and Purchasing-Power-Parity GOP Per Capita, Selected Countries, About 1965, 1979, 1975, 1980, and 1985 c•••..,. .,..-" '96'",CO" Cllt'Q '969-1I 1910",CD" cooi.. 1974-76 In,",CD" aoitl .979-11 1910",CD" cooi.. ."4-66 "as",CD'' ClDilAI'col SS 1') ADimlJ (') I'caI SSe') Ani"". 1') I'cal SSI') Afta..1 1') I'ca1 SSe') A.h... 1') I'ca1 SS 1'1 A.ai-..J 1') Ailieri. 174' 63.1 9.2 I..lSI IU9 6].7 1.7 1.137 2160 62.0 10.2 2JII 2'96 ,,-' 10.6 2.,171 2610 ".0 12.2 2.911 Ar,.nuaa 11 4 ) ]1.4 29.2 ].720 ]]17 ]6.0 29.1 4.I6S ]1$9 )4.1 ]1.] 4,"S ]24] ]],9 ]2.6 '.74' )116 ]6.0 ]1.7 ].117 lanaladrs" 2009 11.7 ].I 974 206' UJ ].4 919 1911 14.2 ].2 97) 1906 14.2 ].1 1.091 196] no ].1 1,116 In_i1 240S 47.9 14.1 1.14) 2S04 47.0 1l.1 2.401 1$07 46.2 IS.) ] •.,0 262] 46.2 13.0 4.U4 2667 4'J 1],9 ].911 Canada S077 2'.7 ]9.1 1.709 ]110 2'J 37.1 10.17' ]2$1 24.0 ]6.0 12.J41 n66 2].7 ],.2 14,.1.]1 ]400 2].1 n.1 IS.691 O'lc 26]S Sl.O 16.4 ],.1.]6 26" SO.4 17.1 Ul7 2"6 '4.S 16-' 2.906 2611 SO.I 16.6 ].900 136' S2-' 13.4 !.l)1 Difta 1914 79.9 6.0 -191t U.2 '.9 U, 2070 12.6 6J "2 2]21 11.0 7.2 1.,241 26D 71.2 1.1 1.111 C.lombi. 2176 41.6 16.4 1.712 2167 60.7 IS.9 2.ot7 2]60 40.] 14.7 2.']S 249. 40.9 14-' 2.192 2S]9 41.& 14.6 2.19] COila Ita 2321 41.0 14-' 2.Jt& 2410 ]9J ISJ 2.796 236] ]6J 16.9 ].11' 2610 ]3.6 11.4 ].694 27" 36.1 16.9 ].1$1 Dtftm.ltk )4 IS 26.0 41.1 1.4]] )410 24.2 41.0 9.673 ]]27 2).0 42.4 10.113 "]0 22-' . 4'.7 11.,2)4 "]1 24.1 44.7 12.114 EnOl 1376 ft.4 6.4 91' 2'47 61.2 6.1 1.10' 267] 6'-' 6.9 1.212 SOli ,,-' 7.0 1..l72 ]]10 62,6 7..l 1.11' Franc. 1I10 ]U )0.] 7,.\40 ]1l7 SO.• ]2.0 9.621 ]141 29.2 ]).1 10,467 ]244 21.1 )4.6 11.791 )211 27.2 37.6 12.116 Germa"y. Frd. Rao. ]ot6 SO.O )4.6 7"" ]207 26.1 -]6.0 9..l" ]20S 2'.6 ".1 10,127 ]]]7 2'.0 ]6.1 12.01] ]47] 2' .• ]7.1 12.'4] Chana 1969 67.1 c..s .,7 2200 63.2 '.9 1.0\2 2164 62.0 '.9 176 191] 69.0 ,.2 921 2196 6'-' 4.6 719 C,nco S021 4'.1 17.7 ].066 . )DI .1.] 19.7 .,.1.]4 ]467 31.1 22.] '.191 ]>40 >4.4 23-' S.I93 ]671 ]],9 24.7 6.11. H••I 1".1 :,,, 46.1 21. 7 ].4'; 2641 44.2 '. 26.2 4.436 2666 44.6 26.7 '.367 2731 39.2 21.2 1.101 21]1 ]1.2 29.6 10.61] HUll'''''''' ]119 .7 .• 29.7 .. ]]]1 41-' ]].1 ).]12 >419 ]1.0 ]4.1 4.SlI ]471 ]7.6 >4.6 S.oJI llSO ]2-' ]6.1 S.Jot loeli> 1911 66.1 4.1 644 2016 66.4 4.7 704 191t 66.7 S.l 716 20tl 67.7 '.1 763 2\4] 64.4 6.4 199 h,do.a;' 1771 79.1 2.1 19] 19U 71.1 2.l 700 21SS 77.7 2J 9)' 237' 74.4 2.4 1.2'2 2l1' 7S.0 1.7 \.626 Irfland ll]O ]4.4 '0.6 3.162 ]367 ]1.4 40.1 4.114 ]]61 29.7 41.0 '.736 ]641 29.' 41.0 6.711 ]66] ]0.2 39.1 7.2IS I ..ory COUI 1336 69.1 '.0 1.199 2392 66-' 6.2 IJ20 2]22 61.6 6.] 1-'93 1$4) 66.] 7.2 \.36] 2106 67.9 6.1 1.'99 JaO&A 26]6 36.2 12.1 4.600 2741 n.1 IS.I 7..100 2761 49J 17J ..,72 2791 46.9 11.9 10..292 210' 4'.1 20.0 J: .0001 Ka,u.S. D"O 13.7 ].7 1.0ll 2121 79.' 4.1 1.661 2737 74.4 6.7 2J3I 2129 66.6 9.2 ].m 2141 63.0 11.1 '.267 Malaysia 23:0 60.• 11.1 1.64' 24" ".1 11.1 2.117 2"2 31.2 IU 2.616 262] S4.6 ISJ ].772 263S 49.9 IS.2 '.07] Mauritius 2nO ".0 7.2 3.012 D93 ".4 U 2.J41 1$49 '4..1 9.4 ]..l13 2721 SO.9 11.' ].192 2747 Sl.6 10.1 '.1]6 Me.teo 2310 ,2.9 12J ].]20 2622 '4J 1].0 ].9SO 2741 J1.J 13.1 '.639 ]014 41.2 17.9 S.707 ]111 41.9 16.9 1.2\9 J'rIiluia 2179 70J ]J 621 21l] 69J ]-' 769 2014 61-' 3.6 1.0]4 m, 61J 4.' 1.196 2127 71J ].1 160 hkislJ.1l 179S 60.0 1].2 162 20]1 63-' 11-' 997 2141 63.6 11.0 19] 2231 63.6 10.7 1.076 2214 60.' 10.9 1..221 Puu 229' n.4 14.4 2JU DI9 Sl.• U.I 2.641 2271 SIJ 11.7 Ul9 2196 SC.2 IU 2."9 2111 >4.1 1:Ll 2.'11 Pbiliooincs 11]2 69.2 11.4 1.:32 1119 66.2 Il.• 1.J61 2041 61.• 11-' 1.623 2299 66.2 10.7 1.169 2239 67.7 10.1 1.321 Po'ald l21l 49.1 29.1 . ]]90 .3.1 ]2.6 2.999 ll39 40.• lJ.1 ••610 1JI6 .0.7 )4.1 •.46' ]]77 39.1 34 .• '.204 50.....1 2491 61.1 9.l 1.104 2310 67.9 9.,2 1.104 D67 67.6 7.1 1.012 2401 63.6 U 1.017 2311 61-' 1.7 1.lot SiAI,pore 2lO1 '1.9 11.4 1.931 269] 41.0 20.0 ].1" 2714 4'.9 2.-' '.006 2707 41.7 23.9 U3I :161 ]1.6 26.6 1,ISl SC"oia 210' 42.0 11.9 4.692 2173 37.0 D.I 6.017 ]DI ]].6 24.6 7JIt ]]1$ ]0.1 27.' 7.491 340] 10.] 29.9 7-'47 5,i LanD 2161 ,7..l '.1 1.22] D36 lIJ 4J loll] 2132 67.1 ].I IJSO W6 19.1 •.6 !.IJI 2404 61.1 0 2.132 S-il'lattaad "11 21.4 ]1.7 11.423 ]..l77 2'.1 )4.3 U.,214 3420 2].1 ]7J 1l.211 ]Sl2 23.1 ]&.1 14.6Sl lllO 22.6 39-' lS.2ot S'," D4, 36.0 1l.1 1.916 2393 >4.9 IIJ 2.,201 1$39 SO-' 11.0 ]..lll 296& 47.& 13.2 4,266 ]In 49.1 14.1 '.071 T..... 11]7 63.7 U ]71 IIIl 6U 1.7 .29 2019 67.• 7.2 '16 U54 66..1 6.2 411 2lJ6 66.9 6-' 432 T1laiIud 2140 74.4 6.9 1.121 2J. 73.6 U 1,.lO1 DIS 70.9 6.9 I.~ 2lOS 66.' 1.0 1.146 2l.66 64J 1.4 1.4D T•••ia 2171 n.0 1.0 1.,219 2291 60•• U 1.]91 2"4 37.1 9.0 2.002 27" ,1.1 U 2••73 2174 sa..9 9.2 1.704 T.rt.y 2673 ".0 11.1 1.793 2131 37.7 10.9 2.179 29'4 ,7.2 10.1 un ]042 ".1 10.4 1.ISl lOO6 )4.6 9..1 ].039 \;SSR ]204 U-' 21.7 - ]]2] 49.0 24.6 2.17] ]]64 46.0 26.2 ].609 ]]70 44.6 2S.1 4.,270 ]]73 43.6 26.7 '.1t4 t:K ]S07 27.1 40.6 7J71 ]"2 26.' 39-' 7.693 ]236 26-' 39.4 9.014 l21J 26.6 ]1.9 10,021 ]171 26J . ]6.6 11.1l7 US" ]231 2J .• 39J 11.492 ]]90 21.0 3&.2 12.72S ]]91 21J 3U 1l••79 ]lID 21.1 34.9 lJ.ot7 ms 21-' 34.1 16.'" V.nn,.... 232S 41.0 16.1 7.].9 2.1] .'J 16.1 7,62. 2.46 '0.1 11.1 7.J41 2632 19.0 20.6 7,2]] 2S36 .0.1 19.1 6,0]7 Zaire 2173 71.0 J.9 ". 22S6 61.9 ].I 644 2J19 69.1 ].4 60] 2101 70.4 1.9 'SO 212. 7:Ll ],2 'D Zambia 209' 76.1 6.7 1.011 2192 70.0 7.' I.otl 2]D 71-' 7.1 1..217 DO' 76.0 S.7 910 2UO 71.' S.I 7,. • .. Dietary indicators are: Kcal--per capita daily energy availabilities; SS (%)--percent of calories from starchy staples; Animal (%)--percent of calories from animal products, and are calculated from FAO. 1991. Food Balance Sheets, 1984-86 Avuage. Rome. Purchasing-power-parity GDP per capita figures are expressed in 1985 U.S. dolJars and are from Penn World Table (Mark 55). 1993. Annex to Summers, Robert and A. Heston. 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons. 1950-1988: Quarterly Journal of Economics. May. 27 Appendix Table 2. Demand Projection Work Sheet 8,909m 7.316mmt~:i:i:i:~:~:i:~::!~·i!::~:i!il:~jil:i!.~l,i:i:i:ilii:~!I:i!l:i:~:i:i:~:illl'~ 2050 :ii(:~~~:~:r::~:rm~:~rJ'~:r:::~r'r:rg::rr·8,121 m 6.258mmt 202520001985 :::::jgrf~r:mn:'1:l::::::r::i::~rl:g} 10,000+ 1.583mmt 7.663m 5.933mmt ""00 2,168m ··~r~~~~~~~~~j~~~;~~~~~~~~~~II~~~}~~~;~~~~~:::. i~:::~:::!~i~i::~:!:i:::i:i:~:i:~::ii:i:i!:::::i:i~i~~:1 ._._._ _ _._._._ __~~:::::::::::.~.I ::::~~r~~~~t~~~~?tr~~r~t~~~~;~~t:;:· '! I N \0 Population data and projections from United Nations. 1997. World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Updated by U.N. 1999. "Revision ofWorld Population Estimates and Projections." www.popin.org/pop1998/3.htm ... I WPNo 99-17 99-16 99-15 99-14 99-13 99-12 99-11 99-10 99-09 99-08 99-07 99-06 99-05 fH..ill applicable) Author(s) Price Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets: Cases of Poland and Slovakia Hranaiova, J. The Potential Role of Microfinance Institutions in Mobilizing Savings: Lessons from Kenya and Uganda Gudz, S.F. Cornell University's Entrepreneurship Education and Outreach Program, Evaluation and Proposal Schlough, C. and D.H. Streeter Why is Inequality Back on the Agenda? Kanbur, R. and N. Lustig World Oil: The Growing Case for International Policy Chapman, D. and N. Khanna The Timing Option in Futures Contracts and Price Behavior at Contract Maturity Hranaiova, J. and W.G. Tomek Measuring the Risks of New York Dairy Producers Schmit, T.M., R.N. Boisvert and L.W. Tauer Non-Market Valuation Techniques: The State of the Art Rose, S.K. The Economics of Oil Palm Production in Chiapas, Mexico Wolff, C. Productivity of Dairy Production in Individual States Tauer, L.W. and N. Lordkipanidze On Improving Econometric Analyses of Generic Advertising Impacts Tomek, W.G. and H.M. Kaiser A Framework for Thinking Through Reduced Aid Dependence in Africa Kanbur, R. International Public Goods and the Case for Foreign Aid Jayaraman, R. and R. Kanbur -.. To order single copies of ARME publications, write to: Publications, Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Warren Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. If a fee is indicated, please include a check or money order made payable to ~ University for the amount of your purchase. Visit our Web site (http://www.cals.comell.eduldept/annel ) for a more complete list of recent bulletins.

Will We Have Enough Food and Fiber?

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Will We Have Enough Food and Fiber?

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