Hurricane damage risk assessment in the Caribbean: An analysis using synthetic hurricane events and nightlight imagery

ACL-1International audienceHistory has shown that hurricanes can cause catastrophic destruction and impede economic growth in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, there is essentially as of date no comprehensive quantitative risk and anticipated loss assessment for the region. In this paper we use synthetic hurricane tracks and local income proxies to estimate expected risk and losses if a climate similar to the last 30 years prevails. We show that on average, the annual fraction of expected property damage and subsequent impacts on income are nonnegligible, with large variations across islands