Traffic demand determinants : a review of long-term scenario effects

Abstract: Transportation infrastructure provision is critical to the development of urban areas. Transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and ports are increasingly becoming the corner stone in determining the strength of cities, improving the quality of lives and overall socio-economic development and growth of economies. However, these projects are stochastic in nature and fraught with uncertainties which, if not accurately predicted, can lead to inadequate assessment and management of risks. The aim of the present paper is to identify critical factors which moderate traffic demand over a long period of time, and which should ideally be included in transport demand forecasts. A detailed review of literature was conducted from online journals, conference proceedings and theses using databases including Science Direct, Ebscohost, Google, Emerald and ASCE Library. Findings show that socio-economic factors (such as income, age, employment, vehicle operating costs, fuel price and tax polices), sociocultural factors (such as security, comfort, alternative/competing transport modes, leisure time), and environmental factors (such as pollution, traffic congestion, distance from station and frequency of trips) influence traffic demand. These findings would provide valuable evidence for adequate management of risks in infrastructure planning, and for public policy