Computer Model for Predicting AIDS Among Intravenous Drug Users

Intravenous drug abuse (IVDA) is an important cause of HIV transmission. Computer simulation is one way to understand and predict the spread of HIV infection among IVDAs. We design and simulate HIV infection among IVDAs and the impact of AIDS on this community, and thereby predict future IVDA population, HIV levels, AIDS levels, and AIDS deaths in this group. The HIV to AIDS, and AIDS to Death latencies are described by probability density functions (PDFs) in this model. Factors such as the recruit, quit, and normal death rate of IVDAs, are considered, as well as the infection and removal rates for HIV and AIDS. All these PDFs and rates can be accessed by the user interactively. The impacts of these factors on the IVDA, HIV, and AIDS populations are demonstrated and compared. Discussion of the factors impacting the infection rate provides medical policy makers with useful information