Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage to an external building envelope might become less due to the increase in air temperature. However, the risk of frost damage might rise as a construction may be wet for a longer time due to the increase in rainfall intensities. Research has been done on the following topics: (1) which material is sensitive to frost, (2) the conditions under which the material damage occurs, (3) the outside climate conditions (frost damage winters) and (4) the possibility to predicted frost damage with a multi-physical model. Simulations with a hygro thermal model of external building envelopes with the frost- sensitive material calcium silicate brick were able to reproduce so-called frost damage winters in the Netherlands. Using this model to predict future frost behavior indicate a significant reduction of the risk of frost damage in future