Land management institution as a key confinement of urbanization in Baotou, China-Application of proposed endogenous urbanization model

China has been experiencing rapid urbanization, with a large amount of rural land converted into urban land, leading to debate by researchers and governments. This study investigates the endogenous factors influencing urban expansion and quantifies their effects to promote intensive and sustainable urban land use in order to realize new-type urbanization, by employing GIS technology and an endogenous growth model. The simulation results explain the expansion of urban land in the case of Baotou city, China. The result shows that the land management institution(LMI) has played a critical role in urban land expansion in Baotou city. Its multiplier effect reaches 0.166, which means a one percentage point increase in the strength of LMI leads to a 0.166% increase in urban land area. The presented analysis reveals four main findings. Firstly, the major factors influencing urban expansion are (LMI), urban disposable income per capita, the secondary and tertiary industry, technological progress, and population density. Secondly, LMI has a critical influence on urban expansion. Thirdly, technological progress has a positive effect on urban expansion by merging into the secondary and tertiary industry. Finally, population density and the tertiary industry have a dampening effect on urban expansion. According to the analysis, we suggest that the central government in China should regulate the behavior of local governments to reduce principal-agent risk, as they hold the state land property rights as the trustee of the public. Meanwhile, the government should pay more attention to guiding technological progress by promoting industrial transformation and economic quality, not just focusing on economic quantity, especially for resource-based cities. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved