Impacts of Policy on Electric Vehicle Diffusion

Selection and design of appropriate government policies to support electric vehicle (EV) adoption can be aided by modelling the future impact of policy instruments relative to a given baseline estimate. This paper highlights the innovative application of a diffusion model to analyse complex impacts of EV policy instruments on future incremental EV uptake. Several versions of four key policy instruments are tested in the model: linking electric vehicle sales to Renewable Electricity Purchases (RE-EV), financial subsidies, smart charging incentives and a common cost metric to educate consumers about the lifetime costs of EVs. Market share between battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) were forecasted out to the year 2034 across all 1.5 million households in the state of Victoria, Australia. The RE-EV scenario had the strongest performance in terms of economic and societal indicators. Non-subsidy policy instruments can also support uptake of EVs, especially in the case of encouraging BEV adoption. We found feebate scenarios were more effective policies than rebates. Rebate and feebate scenarios applied within the 2014-2019 timeframe compared better than those with longer timeframes. Our analyses showed how combined policy scenarios not only further improved EV uptake but also allowed government to fund rebates through feebate income