The Putin Succession

<p>Abstract copyright data collection owner.</p>Previous work by the present applicant and his Russian collaborator has established that the relatively small group that takes Russia's key decisions is increasingly composed of siloviki with a military or security background. This distinctive ruling group faces a serious challenge as it seeks to manage a succession to the all-powerful presidency at the end of Vladimir Putin's second term. The central question for the project is the changes that will take place in the Russian political elite as this succession proceeds. We will ask, in particular: Will the existing level of representation of the siloviki be maintained, or even increased? How will the siloviki and other strategic groups be distributed across the presidential administration, within a government that will be chaired by a more influential prime minister, within the newly-elected legislature, and in the eighty-odd regions? How will these strategic groups be represented within the informal 'court' where the most crucial of all decisions are made? What are the implications of their representation and known opinions for Russia's domestic and foreign/security policy? We propose to examine such matters on an annual basis in successive cross-sections, from January 2008 to January 2011 inclusive