CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION IN AN ARID ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST: CASE STUDY OF IRAQ

In this paper impact of climate change on precipitation in the arid environment of Iraq is examined. LARS-WG weather generator was applied to 5 representative regions to model current and future precipitation under climate change. Seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been employed to account for any uncertainty on future projection for three selected periods, 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099. Performance of LARS-WG in each site was first evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test for fitting wet/dry days in each site, as well as comparison of the mean and standard deviation between the observed and simulated precipitation. The developed LARS-WG models were found to perform well and skilful in simulating precipitation in the arid regions of Iraq as evidenced by the tests carried and the comparison made. The precipitation models were then used to obtain future projections for precipitation using the IPCC scenario SRES A2. Future precipitation results show that most of the Iraq regions are projected to suffer a reduction in annual mean precipitation, especially by the end of the 21st century, while on a seasonal basis most of the regions are anticipated to be wetter in autumn and winter. Journa