Simulation decision aid for power station configuration evaluation

M.Tech.In life extending and refurbishing old power station plant, the following question must be addressed: Does one maintain current configuration, which was based on the technology of 1960, or make use of current power utility technology trends, and change the power station's configuration. This specific problem involves four existing Eskom power stations, with an approximate combined replacement value of R7 billion. All these stations have the capability of using a common steam feed range to supply superheated steam to the turbo-generator sets. This common steam feed range becomes very maintenance intensive in its "old age". Hence the need for this study into the feasibility of its refurbishment. This common steam feed range configuration was considered state-of-the-art in the mid-1900's, but is currently not the practised technology. This is primarily due to the technology advancement into reheat boilers, making control of a range type configuration impossible. Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective, holistic decision mechanism, that is free from bias, emotions and conjecture. Hence the simulation product, highlighted in this dissertation, will have solved an industrial problem finally and effectively, by ensuring that for a relatively small cost of building the simulation models, major capital expenditure estimates can be accurate, with a confidence in the return on investment. This paper discusses the use of Monte Carlo simulation modelling as an engineering analysis tool, for the analysis of two power station configuration options, i.e. with a steam feed range and without. Firstly, an investigation into the selection of which computer language to use as a development tool is presented. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is then explained, and simulation models are built of the two power station configurations. The models, which are built using SIMSCRIPT 11.5 simulation language to represent the real world in each configuration option, are then discussed. The availability analysis is developed, and conclusions and recommendations are discussed, as presented in the report to Eskom Management