Risk of Dengue for Tourists and Teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil
- van Panhuis, Willem G.
- Hyun, Sangwon
- Blaney, Kayleigh
- Marques, Ernesto T. A.
- Coelho, Giovanini E.
- Siqueira, João Bosco
- Tibshirani, Ryan
- da Silva, Jarbas B.
- Rosenfeld, Roni
DOIAbstract
Background\ud \ud This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings\ud \ud We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001–2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expect...