Forcing mechanisms behind variations in TOC concentration of lake waters Forcing mechanisms behind variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of lake waters during the past eight centuries – palaeolimnological evidence from southern Sweden Forcing mechanisms behind variations in TOC concentration of lake waters

International audienceDecadal-scale variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in lake water since AD 1200 in two small lakes in southern Sweden were reconstructed based on visible-near infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS) of their recent sediment successions. In order to assess the impacts of local land-use changes and regional variations in 5 sulphur deposition and climate on the inferred changes in TOC concentration, the same sediment records were subjected to multi-proxy palaeolimnological analyses. Changes in lake-water pH were inferred from diatom analysis, whereas pollen-based land-use reconstructions (Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm) together with geo-chemical records provided information on catchment-scale environmental changes, 10 and comparisons were made with available records of climate and population density. Our long-term reconstructions reveal that TOC concentrations were generally high prior to AD 1900, with second-order variations coupled mainly to changes in agricultural land-use intensity. The last century showed significant changes, and unusually low TOC concentrations were recorded in 1930–1990, followed by a recent increase. Vari-15 ations in sulphur emissions, with an increase in the early 1900s to a peak around AD 1980 and a subsequent decrease, were most likely the main driver of these dynamics, although processes related to the introduction of modern forestry and recent increases in precipitation and temperature may have contributed. The increase in lake-water TOC concentration from around AD 1980 may therefore reflect a recovery process. Given 20 that the effects of sulphate deposition now subside, other forcing mechanisms related to land management and climate change will possibly become the main drivers of TOC concentration changes in boreal lake waters in the future