Global warming and the collapse of theFrench Guiana shrimp fishery

This paper studies the biological and economic effects of globalwarming on the French Guiana shrimp fishery. The sea surface tem-perature is explicitly introduced into four natural growth functions,among which the Cobb-Douglas function best adjusts the availabledata. Besides, a Cobb-Douglas harvest function is also estimated, in-dicating that shrimp production in French Guiana is highly sensitive tothe shrimp stock, which implies that global warming may have strongeconomic implications. We nally consider a centralized resource man-agement of the French Guiana shrimp shery, that is undertaken invarious trend scenarios concerning the sea surface temperature. Un-der the most plausible scenario, in which the sea surface temperaturefollows the trend of the last decades, pro ts and biomass respectivelydecrease and collapse around the end of the 2020’s