Evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the French residential sector

International audienceA cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kWhpe/m2/year and reduce GHG emissions by 75% are important objectives of environmental policy in France. The residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings. In this paper, our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures. We model energy consumption and GHG emissions, the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock. Particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation. To generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050, we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions. This study has three major outputs. First, we estimate the energy consumption and GHG emissions of the residential sector in France through 2050. Second, we study the impact of environmental public policy measures. Lastly, we propose different means to reach the objectives. The results show that while current policies are effective, they are not sufficient to reach the objectives