[[alternative]]The Analysis of Book Consumption and Publishing Investment

[[abstract]]國際或國內極少有針對圖書消費與出版投資所做的研究，即使是簡單的相關數據均落後於大部分產業，在台灣，由於該產業統計數據的落後，以至於對於該產業的利潤率、產值等等皆人云亦云。然而，在今天所謂知識經濟（Knowledge Economy）時代，出版產業的產值、圖書消費額等不應該再依賴粗糙的推估方式來加以論斷，而究竟圖書與出版對經濟成長的貢獻以及其未來發展趨勢等問題均必須一一解密。 本研究在理論部分係從經濟學研究消費之基本方法以及投資經濟學之基本理論出發，同時就現有的數據資料以統計迴歸分析，採縱橫斷面法，結果顯著性程度及判決係數均高。其貢獻在於此乃第一次對台灣地區圖書消費以「時間數列」作出比較有經濟學根據的推估（時間長度1972~1997年），並發現文建會1997年對台灣地區書市的估計值過高（詳見本研究第二章）。 此外，本研究以「STELLA模型」模擬台灣地區圖書庫存、銷售量及價格的完整動態模型，這也是台灣學界第一次以電腦模擬的方法模擬之。預測出台灣地區的書價變化趨勢，2010年書價大約為每本422元，為1997年的1.6倍；同時發現庫存呈波動上升，尋求最適庫存量應是出版界的重要研究課題（詳見本研究第四章）。 研究結果發現台灣地區圖書（含文具）消費傾向偏低（為0.0027），圖書消費成長緩慢，欲提高圖書消費最根本方法乃普遍而均勻地提高國人的文化素養，使圖書消費傾向普遍增加。而出版廠商的邊際成本、利潤率均無確定數，以至於對於研究台灣地區出版商的進出市場不準確，故出版業者應該嚴格進行邊際成本、平均成本、利潤等分析。 礙於出版業的其他相關資料諸如投資、利潤率、庫存管理、設備等等付之闕如，以至於無法建構最完整的供給（出版投資）需求（圖書消費）模型；再者，由於數據資料的限制，所推估的結果均包含文具消費在內，此乃本研究不可避免之缺陷。[[abstract]]Book consumption and publishing investment issues are rarely referred topics in both domestic and international studies while comparing to other industries. In Taiwan, the publishing-related statistics are such unreliable that profit rate and productivity are audited roughly. However, the productivity and profit of book consumption shouldn't be estimated according to these unrecognized data. Therefore, it is necessary to research the contribution to economic growth of publishing industry and also the trends of publishing industry development. Based on consumption research and investment theory, we found regression results with statistic significance according to cross section with time series analysis of available data from 1972 to 1999. Perhaps this is the first precisely estimated by method of time series on the basis of economics, founding that the suggested data from documents of the Council for Culture Affairs in 1997 is too high. Details are described in chapter 2. Besides, we simulated inventory, sales and prices and built a dynamic and complete model of Taiwan's publishing industry with STELLA model. Again, this is the first time publishing industry is modeled by computer-supported method. The trend of average book price will be 422 NT dollars in 2010, about 1.6 times of price in 1997. At the same time, inventory was found rising such that discovering best-fitted inventory is necessary to Taiwan's publishing industry. Details are described in chapter 4. The consumption propensity was found as low as 0.0027 in research period. The book consumption book grows slowly. To avoid this, cultural literacy should be emphasized. More over, lack of publishers' marginal costs and profit rates, publishing market always with incorrect estimations. Therefore, the data bank about marginal costs, average costs and their profits is necessary. For lack of other data from publishing industry such as investment, profit rate, inventory management and equipment, the most complete supply-demand model could not be built. At last, due to restrictions of data, stationery consumption was included in research results, remains an indispensable defect