[[alternative]]The Impact of China's Export Tax Rebate and Processing Trade Policy Adjustments on Cross-Strait Trade

[[abstract]] 中國在積極實行對外改革開放後，不但經濟成長迅速，且經貿地位漸居世界要角，台灣在這個環境底下，不管是貿易或海外投資，對中國之依賴度均逐年快速攀升。因此，倘若中國經貿政策改革或經濟環境改變，台灣可能受的影響就相當可觀。從2003年開始，中國外貿政策就陸續改變，包括調降出口退稅率與調整加工貿易政策，此外，並於2006年與2007年作出更大幅度的改革，累積受影響產品數已超過四成以上。所以，倘若在中國之台商受到政策改革影響，以台資企業為主軸的兩岸經貿關係，將可能受到嚴厲的挑戰，這個問題相當值得重視。 由於中國出口退稅與加工貿易政策大幅度改革是近年的事，因此目前尚未有正式文獻研究該改革對台灣可能造成什麼影響。為彌補文獻上的不足，本研究採用 difference-in-differences 估計法，並以經濟部投資審議委員會2002至2006年「大陸投資事業營運狀況調查分析報告」中的問卷資料，針對台商向台灣採購、回銷台灣部份進行實證分析。 研究結果顯示，相對於未在中國大陸出口退稅與加工貿易政策調整項目的廠商，調整項目內的廠商和台灣間的經貿關係已受此政策調整影響。雖然向台灣採購比例方面影響效果並不顯著，但回銷台灣比例呈現減少趨勢，顯著減少約11%。其中，以電子業受影響最大，該產業回銷台灣比例減少超過20%。[[abstract]] After the process of economic reform began in China, the Chinese economy took off and became one of key players in the world. Under this economic environment, Taiwan's dependence on China - both trade and FDI - are rapidly increasing year by year. Therefore, changes in China's economic and trade policy might have considerably impact on Taiwan. Especially, since 2003, China's foreign trade policy had been changed, including lowering the export tax rebate rate and adjustment of processing trade policy. In addition, more than 40% of product categories have been affected in 2006-2007. Given that Taiwanese-invested enterprises play the major role in cross-strait economic and trading relations, the effects of changes in Chinese government policy on Taiwanese companies operating in China can have a huge impact on the economic relationship between Taiwan and China, creating serious challenges. Since the major changes in China's export tax rebate and processing trade policy is in recent years, however, there are not reliable papers in literature. To compensate for the gap of the literature, using the questionnaire data, surveyed by Investment Commission, MOEA, from 2002 to 2006, ＂Survey on Taiwanese Firms in Mainland China＂, we adopt difference-in-differences method to estimate. Two variables - purchasing materials from Taiwan and selling products back to Taiwan - are employed in our empirical analysis. The results indicate that, relative to the firms that aren't affected by policy changes, manufacturers in adjusting list has been substantially affected by these policies. Although the ratio of purchase intermediate goods from Taiwan is not obviously affected, there is a negative impact on the ratio of selling products back to Taiwan about 11%. Furthermore, the electronics industry is mostly effected, with decreasing of more than 20%