[[alternative]]An Analysis on the Platform Developing of Taiwan's Digital Publish and the Future Scenarios

[[abstract]] 本研究主要探討臺灣數位出版服務平台營運模式與未來新營運模式之預測。藉由剖析產業整體面貌，歸納出影響臺灣數位出版服務平台營運的內外部環境因素及其面臨之問題，找出影響服務平台營運之關鍵因素；此外，透過對現有營運模式在未來五年內可持續性及可鏈結性檢視，以作為數位出版服務平台未來營運模式的預測。 本研究性質屬產業定性預測，研究的問題涉及經濟變動、產業結構、市場需求、科技趨勢等層面，動態而複雜，基於對未來的不確定，因此，結合情境分析法及修正式德菲法兩種方法，以半結構式問卷進行兩個回合施測。共有三十七位專家參與。 研究發現，影響臺灣數位出版服務平台營運因素之作用力偏大的前二個項目為「數位出版品總類不夠多，讀者選擇性少。」及「資金問題：數位化成本與經營成本皆高，回收時間不確定，導致投入者卻步。」；就服務平台營運模式在未來五年內的可持續性及可鏈結性之整體排序來看，以「硬體（手持式閱讀器）、內容與平台結合之營運模式」、「授權使用國外研發之閱讀軟體，透過網路提供數位產品全流程解決方案，包括產品研發設計、製作、DRM、銷售、客服、金流等」兩種模式為最高；關於未來數位出版服務平台新營運模式，專家們一致看好「依內容選擇式付費」，其次為「個人書房/部落格與平台合作免費閱讀」與「自助餐模式，一次付費，書種任君挑選」。[[abstract]] There are two main researches of this study. One is the operation model of the platform in Taiwan's digital publish and the other is the prediction of new operation model in the future. The key factors which affect the platform can be find out by means of analyzing the whole picture of the publish industry and concluding the problems which influence the internal and external environmental factors in Taiwan's digital publish. In addition, the future operation model of digital publish can be predicted through the examination of the sustainability and cooperation ability of current operation model in five years. The attribution of this study is the prediction of digital industry stability. The study is dynamic and complex that involving many areas such as economic variation, industrial structure, market demand, technical trend and so on. Two rounds of semi-structure questionnaire were conducted which combined scenario analysis and modified Delphi method based on the uncertainty of the future. There were thirty seven experts participation. It can be discovered that the top two items which more affect the operation model in Taiwan's digital publish were ＂the categories are not sufficient to make choice＂ and ＂capital issue: the cost of digitalization and operation is high and break-even point can not be sure, investors hung back.＂ Based on the overall sort and percentage of the sustainability and cooperation ability of the operation model of the platform in five years, the top two modes are ＂hardware (handheld device), the operation model of content and platform＂, ＂get licensing and using read-software which developed from abroad, providing total process solution of digital product via Internet, including product R&D, production, DRM, sales, customer service, cash flow and etc.＂ Regard to new operation model of digital publish in the future, experts all agree that ＂pay by content selected＂ is first, followed by ＂personal bookshop/blog cooperate with platform have no charge.＂ and ＂the buffet-model, you can choose as many kind of books as you want by paying once.