[[alternative]]An Analysis of the Trend of the National Education under the Low Birth Rate: Case Study of Taichung Municipal Junior High School

[[abstract]] 由於社會經濟環境快速變遷，年輕族群婚育行為與態度已異於以往。在生育率持續低於替代水準的情況下，「少子化」成為了現今許多國家共同的社會發展現象，臺灣地區在2011年已與德國、日本等國並列為全球最低生育率國家。 臺中市過去十多年來一直是國內人口移入最高的都市，總生育人口亦相對高於其他都市；但自少子化蔓延以來，臺中地區的國中小入學人數亦是逐年下降，其下降幅度更為北部地區以外相對較高的都市，已衝擊到整個教育環境。 本研究採用文獻分析與訪談法。首先透過文獻分析，瞭解我國少子化現象及對國民教育發展的影響；同時以臺中市教育行政人員與學者為對象，設計訪談大綱，針對少子化現象下臺中市國中教育的發展趨勢與因應策略進行探討。本研究得出以下結論：一、臺中市國民中學新生入學人數未來將持續逐年下降；至2021學年度時，臺中市西區、大甲區、東勢區、北區與西屯區將會是新生人數減幅最大者。二、臺中市國民中學各校平均班級數隨著新生人數逐年遞減而減少；除新興地區學校維持擴班外，多數地區學校由於受到減班影響，造成教育資源浪費。三、在少子化影響下，臺中市國民中學未來教育發展趨勢為精緻教育的發展、學校行銷與差異化經營意識抬頭、教師評鑑與師資培育評鑑的施行、完全中學的設置。四、臺中市國民中學面對少子化威脅的因應策略可為活化校園空間、發展多元與適性教學、建立教師專業成長制度、實施策略聯盟與發展特色學校。[[abstract]] Owing to the fast change of social and economic environment, the attitude and behavior of young couple are different from the past over the issue of the marriage and fertility. Under the circumstance of the birth rate unable to reach the replacement level, low birth rate has become a global trend in many countries; Taiwan, Germany and Japan are countries with the lowest birth rate in 2011. Of all cities in Taiwan, Taichung City is with the more immigrants and higher birth population than others over the past decade. However, due to the low birth rate , the enrollment of Taichung’s national education is also declining year by year, which is even worse than other cities in northern Taiwan. The low birth rate has great impact on the whole education system in Taichung. This dissertation is to conduct literature analysis and focus-group interview as the research method. Firstly, it is to find out the situation of low birth rate and its impact on the national education through literature analysis. Secondly, it is to interview certain educational officers in Taichung City as well as scholars over the issue of low birth rate and its impact on education system in order do understand the trend and to explore the strategy for coping with the threatening situation. Finally, conclusions are made as the followings: 1. The new enrollment of Taichung municipal junior high schools will continue declining in the future, West district, Tachia district, Tungshih district, North district and Xitun are among the most serious districts by 2021 academic year.2. Apart from class increase at some new districts, most classes of Taichung municipal junior high schools will decrease averagely due to the low new enrollment that will waste educational resources.3. With the impact of low birth rate, the trend of Taichung municipal junior high schools will be moved toward development of delicate education, aroused awareness of school marketing and managed differentiation, implementation of teacher’s evaluation, and establishment of complete high schools.4. The strategies to cope with the threat of low birth rate at Taichung municipal junior high schools include activation of school derelict space, application of multiple and appropriate teaching skill, promotion of teachers’ professional development, implementation of strategic alliances, and development of the featured schools