[[alternative]]Exchange Rate Misalignment, Export and Economic Growth--Nonlinear Threshold Model Analysis

[[abstract]] 貶值救經濟是最近大家一致喊出的口號，實證研究指出：貨幣貶值可以增加國家的外部競爭力，尤其是以出口導向的國家，然而過度壓低匯率來增加出口競爭力亦會帶來許多後遺症，例如：可能招致貿易報復而且過度的匯率波動，也是金融危機的指標。在全球經濟結構逐漸轉變，歐美需求逐漸減緩加上保護主義抬頭，使得新興市場以出口來帶動成長的難度越來越高，因此本研究以出口值做為門檻來探討在不同的體制之下，匯率失衡是否真的有助經濟成長，若是失衡對於成長沒有幫助，政府應該改變出口救經濟的思惟，重新擬定其它有用的政策。本研究的實證結果發現，當出口值超過某一門檻之後，政府的貨幣貶值政策將無提升經濟成長之功用，政府應該採取其它的政策才可以有效的達成提升經濟成長的目的。[[abstract]] Devaluation can help saving the economy of country has been a unanimous slogan in recent years. Empirical research indicates that currency devaluation can increase a country's external competitiveness, especially in export-oriented places; however, it will also bring a lot of consequences if a government keeps the exchange rates too low. For example, it may lead to trade retaliation and excessive exchange rate fluctuations. The structure of the world economy changes gradually, thus slowing the demand in Europe and the States. Besides, due to protectionism, it becomes more and more difficult for emerging markets to boost export growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate whether devaluation helps economic growth and further to discuss the value of exports under different systems. If devaluation doesn't work well, the government should shift its original plan and think of other useful policies. In this study, we use non-linear error correction model for empirical research based on exchange rates and some information of Thailand from 1993 to 2013. The empirical results show that when the export value exceeds a certain threshold, the devaluation policy will help the economy growth. As a result, the government should adopt other policies so that it can effectively accomplish the purpose of enhancing economic growth