Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures

Rice is a predominant food staple in many regions of the world, and international rice markets play a vital role in ensuring the food security needs of developing countries. It is important to develop economic tools and market-based instruments to aid in the price discovery process, mitigate the effects of price instability, and make rice markets more responsive to the needs of both consumers and producers. The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of USDA supply and demand forecasts, specifically WASDE and NASS, with respect to rice futures markets. Two event study approaches are utilized in this study: (1) examine variability in returns on report-release days as compared to returns on pre- and post-report days, and (2) regress price reactions on changes in usage and production information. It is found that the USDA provides the rice futures markets with valuable information, and rice futures respond to the information in an economically consistent manner