Possible development analysis of the areas located along the second metro line in Warsaw

Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza i prognoza rozwoju obszarów położonych wzdłuż drugiej linii metra warszawskiego. Do wykrycia zmian użyto zmodyfikowanego modelu MOLAND, który został rozwinięty w wyniku analiz pokrycia terenu programu CORINE Land Cover prowadzonego przez Komisję Europejską. Badania wskazały tereny najbardziej predysponowane do zmian, ich kierunek, a także tempo ich rozwoju.The aim of this study was to analyze the development of areas located along the second metro line in Warsaw using the modified MOLAND model. The area of analysis was set at a distance of 500 meters from the subway line. Four databases were used as an input: current use of the land, map-based transport accessibility, site plans and potential development areas databases. The results show that areas located within the existing plan, situated not more than 500 meters from the metro station and designated as an area of development will develop the fastest. The slowest, will change areas located further than 750 meters from the station and without an abiding site plan. Fastest-growing terrains are bestead mostly in small and built-up areas. The most extensive changes take place in areas currently partially or generally undeveloped, but without proper infrastructure development they are likely to slow down. This model could be used especially for spatial planning by city authorities