The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction within a Probabilistic Framework

A critical aspect of the role of intelligence, within the context of conflict situations involving national level actors, is the reduction in uncertainty associated with ascertaining information relevant to policy makers. Structured techniques for intelligence analysis seek to reduce this uncertainty by the implementation and use of stepwise methods in which each step within the process is transparent and through which the uncertainty generated by cognitive bias is limited. One such method, which serves as the contextual basis for this study, is the Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP). The focus of the study is the recasting of traditional implementation of this specific structured method for intelligence analysis within a simplified probabilistic framework using basic definitions and Bayes’ theorem. The resultant is shown to one in which the original twelve steps are reduced to four and through which the metrics for uncertainty, focal events and event transposition are inherently encoded